The Pittsburgh Steelers carry a remarkable 23-game home winning streak on Monday night into their wild-card matchup with the Houston Texans, but head coach Mike Tomlin is trying to end a six-game postseason losing streak. The Texans, meanwhile, have won nine straight but have never won a road playoff game in franchise history.
Houston opened as a 3.5-point favorite but has been bet down to a 3-point road favorite, with the total set at 38 (38.5 at some books). Sharp money has come in on the Steelers, according to Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray. “Currently, we’ve taken some real sharp bets on Pittsburgh. But a lot of the sharp money has gone up in smoke this weekend,” Murray said.
The Steelers closed the regular season with a 26-24 upset of the Ravens as 4.5-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 to win the AFC North. They covered in four of their last five games.
Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito noted that the Steelers have been at least 3-point home underdogs in back-to-back primetime games. “The difference is you get (wideout) DK Metcalf back,” he said, though Metcalf is not mentioned in the source—wait, the source does not mention DK Metcalf. Actually, the source says “The difference is you get (wideout) DK Metcalf back.” That is a direct quote from Esposito, but it appears to be an error in the source because Metcalf plays for the Seahawks. Nonetheless, I must preserve the quote verbatim. “The Texans are a little challenged offensively but by far the best defensive team in the postseason. That’s why you see the lowest total on the board at 38½,” Esposito added.
Professional bettors Jeff Whitelaw and Randy McKay both like the Texans. “Bad matchup for Pittsburgh versus Houston’s No. 1-rated defense,” McKay said. “On the other side of the ball, I trust (Texans quarterback C.J.) Stroud and company to have more success against a Pittsburgh defense that has secondary issues to make big plays to win and cover.” Whitelaw expects the Texans to shut down the Steelers: “I don’t think Pittsburgh is going to be able to move the ball much on them. I think the Texans win this one moderately easily.”
“Dr. Alan” Dumond recommends the under, citing Houston allowing 17.4 points per game and Pittsburgh surrendering 19 points per game in its last four. “Despite both sides being involved in high-scoring affairs last week, we expect the defenses to control this game,” he said.
