When the Las Vegas Raiders step to the podium with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, they will be trying to rewrite a painful chapter in franchise history. The last time they held the top selection, in 2007, they chose quarterback JaMarcus Russell — a decision that set the organization back years.
Now, with Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza expected to be the pick, the Raiders are betting that the circumstances are fundamentally different. Mendoza led the Hoosiers to a 16-0 record and a national championship, completing 72 percent of his passes. He will enter a league with a rookie wage scale that eliminates the kind of holdout that derailed Russell, who signed a six-year, $68 million contract with $31.5 million guaranteed and then missed his entire first training camp.
“He needs to take it one day at a time and reach out to other guys who went No. 1 and to figure out all the pressure that comes with it,” said Dwayne Bowe, a former NFL wide receiver who played with Russell at LSU and now runs the All-Pro Academy with him. “Mendoza seems ready for this and is a well-rounded, all-together type of guy.”
Russell, now 40, was gone after three seasons, throwing 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 31 games. He never played in the NFL again. On the “Raw Room” podcast, he blamed a lack of talent at wide receiver, a coaching staff that didn’t want him, and a losing culture — though many observers say he bore much of the responsibility himself.
“Lane was the head coach, so I really didn’t have to deal with Lane,” Russell said of then-coach Lane Kiffin. “They didn’t give us time to be who we needed to be, even though he didn’t want me. … Things just weren’t set up for success.”
Kirk Morrison, a former Raiders linebacker and current broadcast analyst who played with Russell, sees stark contrasts. “I really thought the world of JaMarcus and still think the world of him,” Morrison said. “I don’t think he really understood the magnitude of what it meant to be the No. 1 overall pick, to have the keys to the organization and having guys depend on him and his performance week in and week out.”
Morrison noted that the 2007 Raiders were coming off a 2-14 season and trying to change a toxic culture. “That was a lot to put on a young quarterback who basically missed an entire offseason. He was learning on the run and here you go, the keys. I don’t know if anybody is ready for that.”
Mendoza, by contrast, has shown a relentless curiosity. “Coaches would always say, ‘Fernando wants to know the why of every single play,’” Morrison recalled from Mendoza’s time at California. “That’s all. ‘Hey, why are we using this motion, why are we running this play, why are we using this split?’”
Raiders owner Mark Davis has said he will leave the final decision to general manager John Spytek and coach Klint Kubiak. “Having the first pick in the draft is exciting because we kind of control the draft — we get to make the decision on who we’re gonna pick,” Davis said. “But we’ve had that position before, and it didn’t work out. So there’s no magic bullet there, but it’s a great opportunity to get a great player, whoever they decide to pick.”
Morrison believes Mendoza can succeed if the organization provides stability. “It’s similar to what happened at Indiana. Just surround him with good players and he will elevate them. Allow him to be him. He’s going to pick up an offense. He’s that smart. Just have the pieces around him.”
The Raiders are hoping that 2026 is not 2007. The draft begins April 23 in Pittsburgh.
