Miami (Florida) will play the role of home underdog Monday night when it faces undefeated Indiana in the College Football Playoff national championship at Hard Rock Stadium. While the betting public has piled on the Hoosiers, professional bettors have quietly backed the Hurricanes, causing the point spread to tick down at several sportsbooks.
Indiana opened as a 7-point favorite and climbed to as high as 9 before sharp money on Miami pushed the consensus line back to 8½. At Boomer’s Sportsbook, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said, “We took some sharp money on Miami +8½ (Friday), so we’re down to 8.” He added, “I know the sharps were on the ’Canes against Ohio State at a similar number, so I guess they’ll be on the ’Canes again.”
The Hurricanes upset Ohio State 24-14 in the quarterfinals as a 7½-point underdog, a line that had been as high as 10. Miami is 7-0 straight up and against the spread this season versus AP Top 25 opponents and 3-0 ATS as an underdog, including outright wins over Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Ohio State.
At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews reported sharp action on both sides. “We definitely had sharp play (on Indiana) at -7½ and -8. We wound up going all the way to 9 and we finally got some sharp play coming back on Miami +9. The public is definitely on Indiana.”
The total has also moved, dropping from as high as 48½ to 46½ at the South Point after sharp money hit the under. “They bet me under 48½, under 48 and under 47½,” Andrews said. “The wiseguys are on the under and the ’dog, but only at +9.”
Indiana enters 15-0 after demolishing Alabama and Oregon by a combined 94-25 in its first two playoff games. The Hoosiers are -350 on the money line, while Miami is +290. Bogdanovich sees a “Super Bowl situation” where the public backs Indiana against the spread and also plays Miami on the money line, potentially creating a bookmaker’s dream if Indiana wins but fails to cover.
Pro bettor Paul Stone, who went 10-3 ATS on his college football postseason picks in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, recommends taking Miami +8½ and sprinkling some on the money line. “Not taking anything away from Indiana,” Stone said, “but the Hoosiers needed late touchdowns to win at both Iowa and Penn State. Indiana’s elite throughout its lineup and is so sound fundamentally in all phases, but they’re not unbeatable.”
Stone pointed to Miami’s nation-leading 47 sacks as a key factor against Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza. “If Akheem Mesidor (10½ sacks on the season) and Rueben Bain Jr. (8½ sacks) can affect Mendoza’s rhythm,” Stone said, “I believe the Hurricanes will make this a four-quarter game.”
Stone suggests allocating 60 percent of a unit to the point spread and 40 percent to the money line. Ticket counts at Red Rock Resort favor Indiana at 62 percent, according to director Chuck Esposito, who said, “Best-case scenario as of now is a Miami cover and under.”
