The first two days of the NCAA Tournament have historically been a stage for underdog triumphs, but recent trends suggest the glass slipper may be cracking. With revenue sharing and NIL deals concentrating talent at powerhouse programs, the gap between the haves and have-nots has grown wider than ever.
Last year, no team seeded below No. 3 reached the Elite Eight, and the lone double-digit seed in the Sweet 16 was Arkansas—hardly a small school. This season, the disparity is stark: for the first time in 40 years, every No. 2 seed is favored by at least 20 points over their No. 15 opponent. It’s also the first time in 25 years that every No. 5 seed is favored by seven or more points against No. 12 seeds.
The trend extends beyond March. Over the past four seasons, an average of 65 upsets occurred where non-power conference teams beat power-conference foes. This season, that number plummeted to 29.
Part of the issue stems from conference tournaments eliminating strong mid-major teams that could have posed threats. Yale, one of the best Ivy League teams in years, is in the NIT after losing in its conference tournament. Navy, which won the Patriot League by six games, also fell short. Belmont, the class of the Missouri Valley, suffered a similar fate.
Still, hope remains for underdog lovers. Santa Clara, a program that hasn’t danced since Steve Nash’s era, draws an inconsistent Kentucky team. VCU has won 16 of its last 17 games and faces a North Carolina team missing star Caleb Wilson. Northern Iowa, Akron, High Point, and Troy all have profiles that could produce first-round surprises.
Hofstra’s odds got a boost after Alabama’s top shooter Aden Holloway was arrested Monday morning in a drug bust. As one observer noted, “So not all hope is lost for the underdogs in this tournament. We just might have to be a bit more patient.”
When upsets do occur, they’ll carry extra weight. The George Masons and Florida Atlantics of the world now overcome not just talent gaps but literal payroll disparities. Those stories will be that much sweeter.
