Aside from the obvious factors such as injuries and talent, the most important consideration for handicapping a short tournament like the World Cup is chemistry.

There are always plucky underdogs who find a winning formula and gain momentum during the group stage (think Costa Rica in 2014) and powerhouse countries who implode and crash out of the tournament early (Germany in 2018).

The trick is to identify them and stay on the right side as long as possible.

Starting with Sunday’s opening match between host Qatar and Ecuador, I’ve been handed a $5,000 fantasy bankroll to bet during the World Cup on sides, totals or props.

Until the final is played Dec. 18, expect plenty of plays on Brazil and Denmark, along with several obscure references to Dutch soccer players.

Below are my bets for Sunday:

Bankroll: $3,470 ($225 pending)

Saturday: Lost $40

Today: Betting $315

Bet 1: $165 on Germany-Spain both teams to score (Yes, -165)

Breakdown: Trying to handicap the result of this match is tough without knowing the result of the Japan-Costa Rica early game. Germany will probably need to push for a win to keep alive its hopes of advancing from the group. If the team that played the first half against Japan shows up for 90 minutes against Spain, Germany should be able to find the back of the goal. Spain won 6-0 the last time these teams met in 2020.

Bet 2: $100 on Ghana-South Korea draw (+210; Monday)

Breakdown: Son Heung-min is slowed by a left eye socket fracture and wore a protective mask against Uruguay, which was his first match in three weeks. Ghana held out for more than an hour against Portugal before the dam burst. The Black Stars should be able to last longer against South Korea.

Bet 3: $50 on Argentina to win the World Cup (+600)

Breakdown: This seems like a good value on one of the pre-tournament favorites, which admittedly hasn’t looked very good so far.

PREVIOUS BETS

SATURDAY

Bankroll: $3,630 ($105 pending)

Friday: Won $260

Today: Betting $160

Bet 1: $40 on France (-½, +145) over Denmark, first half LOSS

Breakdown: Denmark was pegged as a dark horse entering the tournament, but it might be fair to question Denmark’s interest after the first match. The team is wearing jerseys that protest Qatar’s treatment of migrant workers. And the Danish soccer federation president reignited a dispute with FIFA on Wednesday, yet another distraction.

Bet 2: $120 on Costa Rica-Japan (Under 2½, -120; Sunday) PENDING

Breakdown: There seems to be a lot of overreaction to these teams’ openers. Costa Rica got its tactics all wrong against Spain and was humiliated as a result. Japan was clinical in its 2-1 victory over Germany after it struggled to score in World Cup qualifying.

FRIDAY

Bankroll: $3,370 ($105 pending)

Thursday: Won $90

Today: Betting $220

Bet 1: $200 on Senegal-Qatar both teams to score (Yes, +140) WIN

Breakdown: After seeing some of the officiating decisions in Qatar’s opener, it’s difficult not to go full-blown conspiracy theorist here. FIFA clearly doesn’t want the host nation to be embarrassed, and scoring a goal would provide a galvanizing moment. Gianni Infantino can’t come down from his suite and head it in himself, but Qatar did have plenty of the ball against Ecuador and created a few chances on its own. Senegal tested group favorite Netherlands for more than 80 minutes and should be able to breach Qatar’s defense at least once.

Bet 2: $20 on correct score England 2, United States 1 (+800) LOSS

Breakdown: A late goal by Christian Pulisic makes the Three Lions sweat. Stranger things have happened.

THURSDAY

Bankroll: $3,230 ($155 pending)

Wednesday: Lost $15

Today: Betting $210

Bet 1: $140 on Ghana (+1½, -140) over Portugal WIN

Breakdown: Which Cristiano Ronaldo will show up at the World Cup? The one with a chip on his shoulder, eager to show he still has something left in the tank after Manchester United terminated his contract? Or the one who causes a distraction and divides the team with his selfish play? Let’s assume the latter until proven otherwise.

Bet 2: $70 on Brazil-Serbia (Over 2½, -140) LOSS

Breakdown: The Selecao are back to being a dynamic attacking team, with Neymar joined by an array of speedy forwards who also go by one name. Serbia has scored at least one goal in 17 of its past 18 competitive matches since late 2020. If Serbia’s Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic are fit, they can trouble Brazil’s defense.

WEDNESDAY

Bankroll: $3,190 ($210 pending)

Tuesday: Lost $1,500

Today: Betting $165

Bet 1: $65 on Canada (+½, -130) over Belgium, first half LOSS

Breakdown: The bankroll took a standing eight count after Argentina’s historic loss to Saudi Arabia, and it’s time to regroup. Canada is making its first appearance in the World Cup in 36 years, and winger Alphonso Davies will cause problems on the counterattack for Belgium, which was ripped apart in transition by Egypt during a friendly last week.

Bet 2: $50 on Canada-Belgium both teams to score (Yes, Even) LOSS

Breakdown: Les Rouges led the CONCACAF region in goals during qualifying, and have their preferred starting 11 available following injury concerns leading into the tournament. Belgium is missing striker Romelu Lukaku but still features one of the most skilled attacks in the world, led by Kevin De Bruyne.

Bet 3: $50 on under ½ goal scored by Cameroon (+120; Thursday) WIN

Breakdown: The Indomitable Lions needed a last-minute goal in a playoff against Algeria to qualify for the tournament. Unless Samuel Eto’o comes out of retirement, they’ll struggle to generate quality chances against a well-organized Swiss team that conceded two goals in eight matches during qualifying.

TUESDAY

Bankroll: $3,395 ($1,505 pending)

Monday: Lost $0

Today: Betting $205

Bet 1: $100 on Poland (+205) over Mexico LOSS

Breakdown: This Mexico side is old and crusty, and features a toothless offense that shouldn’t challenge Poland’s suspect back line. Poland generates most of its offense from crosses, and that direct attack is something Mexico has struggled to stop. Striker Robert Lewandowksi is one of the top scorers in Europe the past handful of seasons and will be a handful for Mexico’s 6-foot-5-inch center back Cesar Montes.

Bet 2: $105 on Germany (-½, -105) over Japan, first half (Wednesday) WIN

Breakdown: The Germans usually come out blazing in their World Cup opener, with 2018 being the notable exception. This version is still in transition after losing to England in the round of 16 at the European Championship last year, and Japan is a difficult team to break down. But Germany will push for an early goal so it can settle the nerves.

MONDAY

Bankroll: $4,795 ($105 pending)

Sunday: Lost $100

Today: Betting $1,500

Bet 1: $100 on U.S.-Wales Under 2 goals (Even) PUSH

Breakdown: This match will go a long way in deciding who advances from Group B along with the favorite England. Neither team can afford a loss, and that should make for a tense affair. These teams played two years ago and it finished 0-0, though several top players for both sides missed out on that match.

Bet 2: $1,400 on Argentina (-700) over Saudi Arabia (Tuesday) LOSS

Breakdown: Hopefully, this is a bankroll-builder game. La Albiceleste are one of the pre-tournament favorites with superstar Lionel Messi leading the way. Losing, or even drawing, the opener against a team ranked 51st in the world would be a disastrous way to start.

NOV. 20

Bankroll: $5,000

Today: Betting $205

Bet 1: $100 on Ecuador-Qatar draw (+205) LOSS

Breakdown: The rumors that eight players from Ecuador were bribed with $7.4 million to throw the opener and allow a second-half goal are probably bogus. Besides, a draw seems like a less suspicious outcome. Qatar can hold its head high for earning a result. Ecuador is fine with getting a point. And the conspiracy theories will just float away like a Wesley Sneijder free kick. Yeah, right.

Bet 2: $105 on Will Ecuador advance from Group A? (Yes, +120) PENDING

Breakdown: This could come down to the final game of the group when Ecuador faces Senegal. Had Sadio Mane not been ruled out of the tournament for Senegal, maybe this bet doesn’t get made. But the late news could unsettle the Lions of Teranga.

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.