The Denver Broncos face the New England Patriots in the AFC championship game on Sunday, but they’ll do so without starting quarterback Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending injury. In his place steps Jarrett Stidham, a former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback who has drawn a comparison from an unlikely source—Nick Foles.
Foles, who famously led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl victory over the Patriots as a backup, posted on X: “A positive note going into the game versus the Patriots is that they struggle against backup QBs in championship-type games.”
Stidham’s presence is the primary reason the Broncos are 4½-point home underdogs. Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw believes oddsmakers overcorrected, estimating the line should be closer to New England -3 or -3½. “I don’t believe that’s justified,” he said. “It’s a tough game. Denver has the better defense.”
Home underdogs of four points or more in the NFL playoffs are 10-0 against the spread with six outright wins over the past 50 years, according to Sports Odds History. That trend has bettors like Bruce Marshall and “Dr. Alan” Dumond backing the Broncos.
“The Broncos have a strong home-field advantage, and their defense led the NFL with 68 sacks, was No. 2 in fewest total yards and was No. 3 in fewest points allowed,” Dumond said.
Marshall noted that Broncos coach Sean Payton has a history of getting strong performances from backup quarterbacks, dating to his time with the New Orleans Saints. He also expects Denver’s pass rush to disrupt Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who “displayed a surprising lack of pocket presence last week versus Houston.”
Betting on the total, Scott Pritchard took the over 42½, citing 798 total yards racked up in Denver last week.
In the NFC title game, the Seattle Seahawks are 2½-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams. Whitelaw likes Seattle on fundamentals, noting the Rams are playing their third consecutive road game after a physical contest last week. “Seattle was at home and didn’t get tested,” he said. “I like to bet the better defensive team, and Seattle is clearly the better defensive team.”
Cris Zeniuk also favors the Seahawks on the money line (-140), saying, “The model likes Seattle by more than a field goal, so lots of value.”
