With starting quarterback Bo Nix sidelined by a broken right ankle, the Denver Broncos turn to backup Jarrett Stidham to lead them into Sunday’s AFC championship game against the New England Patriots. Nix was injured during Denver’s 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.
The Broncos opened as 4½-point underdogs, but the line quickly moved to 5½ and as high as 6. Sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said Nix’s absence is worth about a touchdown, explaining, “They’ve got Bo Nix worth about a full touchdown, seven points, because the Broncos were going to be 2, 2½. Who’s going to trust Jarrett Stidham? I think it keeps going up for a little bit. At some point, there’ll be some takers but the public will be all over New England.”
Denver is the first home underdog in a conference title game since the 2015 AFC championship, when Peyton Manning’s Broncos upset Tom Brady’s Patriots 20-18 as +3 underdogs. That team went on to win Super Bowl 50.
NFC Championship: Seahawks Favored Over Rams
In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks opened as 2½-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams for Sunday’s title game, with the line rising to 3. Seattle advanced by crushing the San Francisco 49ers 41-6, covering as a 7-point favorite. The Rams needed overtime to beat the Chicago Bears 20-17, failing to cover as 4-point favorites.
Westgate’s John Murray noted the contrasting paths: “Seattle had the benefit of having the bye week and didn’t play two weeks ago. Then they barely had to play (Saturday). The Rams had a really tough game against the Bears and that Carolina (wild-card) game was really tough, too. It’s going to take a lot for the Rams to go on the road three weeks in a row against a pretty rested Seattle team whose defense looks great.”
The teams split the regular-season series by a total of three points: Seattle won 38-37 in overtime at home, and the Rams won 21-19 at home. Caesars Sportsbook’s Joey Feazel said, “The football gods have blessed us with a third installment of Rams-Seahawks. These teams know each other inside and out, and this matchup will undoubtedly draw the most action of the two games on the slate next weekend.”
Betting Recap
Favorites went 3-0 against the spread in the divisional round, and overs were 3-0 before the Rams-Bears game stayed under the total of 49½. The Bears nearly covered as 4-point underdogs, tying the game with 18 seconds left on a Caleb Williams pass to Cole Kmet. But Williams threw an overtime interception, allowing the Rams to kick the game-winning field goal.
Red Rock’s Chuck Esposito said, “The Bears really saved the day. Had the Rams covered, we would’ve had a losing day.” The betting public lost big on the 49ers and Bills, who failed to cover as 1½-point underdogs.
In the AFC, the Patriots covered as 3½-point favorites over the Texans, intercepting C.J. Stroud four times. The Bills’ loss included a controversial overtime play where Brandin Cooks appeared to catch a pass near the Broncos’ 20-yard line, but Denver’s Ja’Quan McMillian wrestled the ball away for an interception. Bogdanovich said, “I try to stay as neutral as humanly possible but I thought the Bills got the short end of the stick for sure. Buffalo’s not the luckiest franchise you’ll ever come across, that’s for sure.”
