UNLV was a 40-1 long shot before the season to make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
Now the Rebels are essentially slight +165 underdogs to make the playoff. That is their price on the money line to beat Boise State in Friday’s Mountain West championship game in Idaho.
“The winner of this game is almost certain to be the non-Power Four representative in the College Football Playoff, so the odds for each team to make the (CFP) will be the money line for this game,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said. “Both UNLV and Boise are ranked higher than Army. Thus, a win should make them the highest-ranked non-Power Four team.”
The 12-team playoff field will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions — the Power Four winners and top Group of Five champ — and the seven highest-ranked remaining teams.
Sharps back UNLV
Sharp bettors are backing the Rebels over the Broncos. Boise State opened as high as a 6½-point favorite at Circa Sports on Saturday night before sharp money on UNLV caused the line to quickly drop to 5. It dipped as low as 3½ on Sunday before the consensus line inched back up to 4 on Monday.
“They took 6½, 6 and 5,” Circa sportsbook manager Nick Bogdanovich said. “I do think the Rebels are live. I definitely understand the move.
“I made it 5, but the 5 was an arrow down. In other words, I favor UNLV in this game. I just think that their current form is a little better than Boise. Game 1 could’ve went either way. I think 4 is a good number. I think it will sit 4 most of the week.”
Boise State (11-1, 6-6 ATS), which whipped the Rebels 44-20 in last year’s Mountain West title game, covered as a 4-point favorite over UNLV in its 29-24 win Oct. 25 at Allegiant Stadium. But the Broncos have failed to cover three of their last four games, including their 28-21 win over UNR as 23½-point favorites and their 17-13 victory over Wyoming as 22½-point favorites.
The Rebels (10-2, 7-5 ATS) covered their last two games, including Saturday’s 38-14 rout of UNR. UNLV is 19-7 straight up and 17-9 ATS since the start of last season under coach Barry Odom.
The total on Friday’s game has dipped from 59½ to 58 at Circa.
Books rooting for Rebels
The Westgate has liability on Boise State to make the playoff.
“We’re going to be pretty big UNLV fans in that game for a number of reasons,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “We don’t want Boise State to make it to the College Football Playoff, and we do think that UNLV making the (CFP) will be really good for business.”
The Westgate will offer UNLV and Boise State at -105 on Friday as part of its season-long reduced juice promotion.
“We’ve been doing that for Rebels games all season,” Murray said. “The team’s already working on a prop menu for that game. We’re expecting that to be a pretty marquee game for us on Friday.”
Caesars and Station Sports reported early action on UNLV, which led the Broncos 24-23 early in the fourth quarter in their first meeting before Ashton Jeanty, the nation’s leading rusher, scored on a 1-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-goal.
“We’ve seen this number drop industrywide,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “These two teams played a close game earlier this season, and UNLV had its chances.
“My guess is we’re going to have a ginormous handle on this game on Friday night.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
CFP national championship
At Westgate SuperBook
Oregon +350
Texas 4-1
Georgia 5-1
Ohio State 5-1
Notre Dame 12-1
Penn State 12-1
Alabama 20-1
Tennessee 20-1
SMU 30-1
Indiana 40-1
Clemson 60-1
Boise State 100-1
Arizona State 100-1
Iowa State 100-1
South Carolina 200-1
Miami, Fla. 300-1
UNLV 300-1
Ole Miss 500-1
