NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
“Dr. Alan” Dumond, three-time Westgate SuperContest top-15 finisher, Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge runner-up
Raiders (2-10) at Buccaneers (6-6)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line: Buccaneers -6½, 46
Analysis: This matchup features one squad with playoff aspirations in the Buccaneers and the another already looking ahead to next year in the Raiders. Jobs are on the line for coach Antonio Pierce, his staff and his players. Tampa Bay was fortunate to get by the Panthers in overtime last week, while the Raiders let an opportunity to upset the Chiefs slip through their fingers. It looks like the Buccaneers need this game more on paper. But the Raiders haven’t quit and are playing hard. An upset win would not be shocking. Plus, Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s ATS record as an NFL starter is a stellar 9-3-1.
Pick: Raiders 23, Buccaneers 20
Jaguars (2-10) at Titans (3-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -3½, 40
Analysis: This AFC South battle features two rebuilding squads coming off losses. The Titans can’t be trusted even when laying a short number. Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones played well in relief of injured quarterback Trevor Lawrence last week and will start again Sunday. But do you really want to put your hard-earned money on Jacksonville? Neither side is appealing, so look to the total if you feel the need to get involved. This shapes up as a lower-scoring division game.
Pick: Titans 21, Jaguars 16
Falcons (6-6) at Vikings (10-2)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Vikings -6, 45½
Analysis: The big story in this game is Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins’ return to Minnesota, where he spent the last six seasons. Cousins is coming off one of the worst games of his career. He threw four picks in last week’s loss to the Chargers. The Vikings are riding a five-game winning streak, but they failed to cover as favorites in narrow wins the last two weeks over the Bears and Cardinals. This is a special game for Cousins, and we fully expect him to respond and have a bounce-back performance. We’ll take the generous points.
Pick: Vikings 27, Falcons 24
Panthers (3-9) at Eagles (10-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -13½, 46
Analysis: This NFC matchup features one of the best teams in the NFL against one of the worst. The inflated point spread reflects such. The Eagles arrive red hot on a seven-game winning streak. The Panthers are on a three-game skid, though they have covered their last four. Carolina has played better since quarterback Bryce Young reclaimed the starter role. But it could suffer a letdown here after losing its last two games in excruciating fashion to the Chiefs and Buccaneers. It’s a lot of lumber to lay, but this is a bad spot for the Panthers.
Pick: Eagles 34, Panthers 17
Jets (3-9) at Dolphins (5-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -6½, 45
Analysis: Both squads have failed to live up to preseason expectations, but at least the Dolphins have a legitimate excuse with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing four games with a concussion. No such excuse exists for the Jets. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has started all 12 games, but his performance has been nowhere near his past MVP form. The much-hyped Jets defense has fallen apart, giving up 23 points or more in seven of its last eight games. This toxic mix has combined to produce a lot of bad football and no path to the playoffs. The Dolphins have won and covered their last two home games and, on paper, this looks like another easy win and cover. This is still an AFC East game, however, and the Jets will be motivated to play spoiler. With Rodgers in the sizable division underdog role, we’ll apply the clothes pin to our nose and take the generous points.
Pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Browns (3-9) at Steelers (9-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -7, 44
Analysis: This AFC North matchup features two teams that have been trending in different directions. The surprising Steelers are surging, as they have won six of their last seven games. The Browns, on the other hand, have only two wins in their last 10 games. However, one of those wins was against the Steelers two weeks ago in Cleveland in the snow. The Browns are in a bad scheduling spot for this game, coming off a short week after Monday night’s wild 41-32 loss to the Broncos at altitude in Denver. The Steelers have won and covered four of their five home games this year, and the home team in this series has won the last six meetings.
Pick: Steelers 27, Browns 16
Saints (4-8) at Giants (2-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line: Saints -5, 41
Analysis: This is the textbook definition of an ugly game. The Giants are mired in a seven-game losing streak and the Saints have lost eight of their last 10. Quarterback Drew Lock will start for New York after getting sacked six times last week by the Cowboys and throwing a pick-6. New Orleans has played better since quarterback Derek Carr returned from injury, but it’s still just a four-win squad and will be without key player Taysom Hill. The Saints have lost five of their last six games without Hill, which makes them an untrustworthy road favorite. When two bottom feeders play each other, a simple rule to follow is to take the points with the ugly ’dog. With that, we’ll saddle up and ride with the Giants.
Pick: Saints 17, Giants 14
Seahawks (7-5) at Cardinals (6-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -3, 44½
Analysis: This is a rematch between two NFC West squads that met just two weeks ago in Seattle, where the Seahawks won 16-6. This is a pivotal division game for both teams. The Seahawks would take a two-game lead over the Cardinals with a win and own the division tiebreaker. Arizona will be no worse than tied for the division lead with a win. We’ll give the Cardinals the edge since they’ll be at home and will want to avenge their earlier loss. This might be another lower-scoring game as well. Both teams are on 5-1 under runs.
Pick: Cardinals 21, Seahawks 17
Bears (4-8) at 49ers (5-7)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line: 49ers -3½, 43½
Analysis: This will be Bears interim coach Thomas Brown’s first game in charge after Matt Eberflus was fired following a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Lions. We expect Chicago to respond well to the coaching change. On the other side, the 49ers are reeling. They are a shell of their former selves and are stuck in a three-game losing streak. We’ll look for a motivated Bears squad to carry the day.
Pick: Bears 24, 49ers 20
Bills (10-2) at Rams (6-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Bills -3½, 50
Analysis: The Bills have been impressive all season and are riding a seven-game winning streak. The Rams are playing some of their best football of the season, winning five of their last seven games. Buffalo deserves to be a road favorite in this game, and it’s no surprise that it’s the most publicly bet side of the weekend. However, this is a bad scheduling spot for the Bills. They just clinched the AFC East crown and are coming off two high-profile games against the Chiefs and 49ers, with the Lions on deck. The Rams are locked in a tough NFC West battle with the Seahawks and Cardinals, and they need this game far more than the Bills. We’ll go against the betting public on this one and take the points with the Rams.
Pick: Bills 27, Rams 24
Chargers (8-4) at Chiefs (11-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Chiefs -4, 43
Analysis: This game sets up as a classic buy low and sell high from a point-spread standpoint. The Chiefs have the best record in the AFC at 11-1, but they are on a money-burning 0-6 ATS slide. On the flip side, the Chargers have been a profitable 5-1 ATS their last six games. As such, the betting public is now backing underdog Los Angeles. The line on this game is three points lower then when these division rivals faced off earlier this season. Many call the Chiefs the luckiest team in the NFL based on some of the unusual ways they have won games. That might be true, but the fact remains that they know how to win close games. Kansas City still needs to win to clinch the AFC West crown and get home-field advantage. With this point spread under a touchdown, we’ll roll with the home team and lay the points.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 17
Bengals (4-8) at Cowboys (5-7)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line: Bengals -5½, 50
Analysis: The Bengals have scored 99 points their last three games behind quarterback Joe Burrow. They didn’t win any of them. Cincinnati’s defense can’t stop anyone, as they have given up 34 points or more in four of their last five games. The Cowboys have a little bit of life with backup quarterback Cooper Rush, who is now 7-3 as an NFL starter. The Bengals simply can’t be trusted in the road favorite role with their bad defense. For the total, both squads bring strong over streaks into this game. We’ll look for that trend to continue.
Pick: Bengals 31, Cowboys 27
