Long before the Seahawks and Patriots take the field Sunday, one Super Bowl bet will already be settled: the coin toss. That simple 50-50 proposition has become the eighth-most wagered market at BetMGM, surpassing every individual player prop for the game.
“It’s a fun bet for everyone,” said Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons. “It’s simple, people understand it, it’s quick action, and you’re literally getting a 50-50 roll for your bet.”
The coin toss has come up tails in 31 of 59 Super Bowls overall, including last year’s game and eight of the last 12. That 31-28 split is exactly what randomness predicts, according to applied mathematician Tim Chartier, who specializes in sports analytics.
Sportsbooks offer reduced juice on the coin toss, with lines ranging from -101 at the Westgate to -103 at other shops, instead of the standard -110. At BetMGM, 51 percent of tickets are on heads and 49 percent on tails, while 63 percent of the money is on heads and 37 percent on tails.
“It actually writes decent money on it. There’ll be a ton of money on it both ways,” Salmons added.
Before the 2024 Super Bowl in Las Vegas, a Caesars bettor won a $100,000 wager on tails. Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said his book took a few mid-five-figure coin toss wagers last year. “We had a little sweat before the game even kicked. We were fortunate enough to win it.”
Heads I win, tails you lose
Beyond the simple heads/tails wager, Caesars offers eight coin toss specials at plus prices, including Seahawks win toss and win game at +165 and Patriots win toss and win game at +440. Historically, the team that wins the coin toss is just 25-34 (42.4 percent) in Super Bowls, including an eight-game losing streak from 2015 to 2022.
“If you focus on a specific starting point, the probability of losing eight in a row is 1 in 256,” Chartier said. “A better question is broader: What is the probability that somewhere within the 59 Super Bowls played so far, an eight-game losing streak occurs? About 10 percent. That’s not common, but it’s also not wildly improbable.”
The Patriots are 0-3 when they win the Super Bowl coin toss, while the Seahawks are 1-2.
