The NFL wild-card playoffs delivered a stunning reversal of fortune: the betting public, often on the losing side, swept the weekend by backing popular underdogs while sharp money took a beating. According to Las Vegas oddsmakers, sophisticated bettors lost on every game they targeted.
“Sharp guys haven’t won a game since last weekend,” said John Murray, Westgate vice president of race and sports. “A lot of the sharp money has gone up in smoke this weekend. It really shows you how tough this stuff is.”
Underdogs went 4-0 against the spread to start the postseason, with outright wins by the Chicago Bears (+1½), Buffalo Bills (+1½), and San Francisco 49ers (+5½). The Carolina Panthers (+10½) also covered in a 34-31 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The only favorite to cover was the New England Patriots (-3½), who beat the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 on Sunday night.
Chicago’s comeback from a 21-3 halftime deficit to beat the Green Bay Packers 31-27 was particularly painful for books. “We had every sharp account we have on Green Bay,” Murray said. “The public just loved Chicago. That was probably our biggest decision of the weekend.” A bettor at Caesars Sportsbook won $115,500 on a live $105,000 wager on Chicago +4½ at +110.
Sunday’s games also favored the public. Josh Allen’s 1-yard touchdown run with 1:04 left lifted the Bills past the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24. Brock Purdy’s 4-yard touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey with 2:54 remaining gave the 49ers a 23-19 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, ending the defending Super Bowl champions’ season. “I don’t know how the 49ers keep winning,” Murray said. “That’s a really bad loss for Philadelphia to lose that game at home.”
The books’ best result was Carolina covering as a double-digit home underdog. “Carolina’s strong effort versus the Rams was a favorable result,” said Caesars head of football Joey Feazel. All three Sunday games went under the total, after both Saturday games went over.
Divisional Lines
The AFC divisional round features a pick’em line for Buffalo at Denver, with a total of 46½. The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 at home last season in the wild-card round.
In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are 7-point home favorites over the 49ers, with a total of 46. The Rams are 4-point road favorites over the Bears, total 51. “The Bears are going to have to find a way to stop Stafford and [Puka] Nacua and [Davante] Adams and that offense,” said Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito.
