The NFL postseason kicks off Saturday with the Los Angeles Rams as 10-point road favorites over the Carolina Panthers, the largest spread of Super Wild Card Weekend. The Rams, who lost to Carolina 31-28 as 10-point favorites on Nov. 30, are the second choice at +430 to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Seahawks.
“I still think the Rams may be the best team in the NFC but they’ve kind of limped into the postseason,” said Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito. “It’s not going to stun me to see a couple surprises playing in February. I don’t think anybody had the Seahawks and Broncos penciled in at No. 1 (seeds) or the Bears and Patriots penciled in at No. 2. It’s way more wide open than last year.”
The Broncos (+650) are the third choice, followed by the Eagles and Patriots at 9-1, Bills (10-1), Texans (12-1), Jaguars (14-1), Bears (21-1), 49ers (22-1), Packers (23-1), Chargers (30-1), Steelers (55-1), and Panthers (150-1).
Wild-Card Lines
Saturday night features the Bears as 1½-point home favorites over the Packers, a rematch of Chicago’s 22-16 win in Week 16. “We expect to need the Rams and Packers to falter in round one and expect there to be more handle on the NFC side of the playoffs for the first round,” said Caesars head of football Joey Feazel.
In the other NFC matchup, the Eagles are 3½-point home favorites over the 49ers on Sunday. “It’s a tough task for San Francisco, which was one game away from having every game at home and sleeping in their beds,” Esposito said. “They’re really beat up defensively. The Eagles remind me of that sleeping giant. It’s not going to stun me if they’re playing in the Super Bowl.”
In the AFC on Sunday, the Bills are 1½-point road favorites over the Jaguars, and the Patriots are 3½-point home favorites over the Chargers. “I think the public will be on the Bills as a small favorite. The Patriots and Eagles will be popular in parlays,” said Westgate SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon. “There are a lot of small spreads so that will be really good for handle.”
The Texans are 3-point road favorites over the Steelers on Monday Night Football to close the weekend.
Week 18 Recap
Favorites went 7-9 against the spread in Week 18, but double-digit favorites went 6-0 ATS, including the Vikings (-12½) beating the Packers 16-3. Other double-digit covers: Bills (-13), Broncos (-15), Jaguars (-13), Patriots (-14½), and Rams (-14½). “Every one of them rolled in,” said Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich. “It was a good morning, just not a good afternoon.”
One notable result: the Saints (+4½) burned Falcons bettors with a backdoor cover when Tyler Shough threw a 16-yard touchdown pass to Ronnie Bell with 1:11 left in a 19-17 loss. Outright upsets included the Browns (+9½), Commanders (+3½), Giants (+3), Steelers (+4½), and Raiders (+3½), who beat the Chiefs 14-12 on Daniel Carlson’s 60-yard field goal with eight seconds left but still clinched the top draft pick.
Circa Survivor
Five entries finished 20-0 to split the record $18.7 million prize in the Circa Survivor contest, each collecting $3.7 million. Two survived on the Vikings, including Palo Verde High School graduate and UNLV nursing student Fernanda Carriedo. The other winning picks were the Patriots, Falcons, and Jaguars. One entry was eliminated when the Bengals lost to the Browns on a last-second field goal after taking an 18-17 lead with 1:29 left.
