Vice President JD Vance remains the clear betting favorite to win the 2028 U.S. presidential election. But California Gov. Gavin Newsom has closed the gap in the past week amid protests in Los Angeles and other parts of the country over a federal crackdown on illegal immigration.
Vance has a 23.4 percent chance to win the White House in 2028, which equates to the +327 favorite, according to electionbettingodds.com.
Newsom has an 8.2 percent chance, which is up 2.8 percentage points in the past week. His implied odds to win the presidency equate to +1,120 a week after he was +1,752.
The site averages live odds that it pulls from Betfair.com, Kalshi.com, Polymarket.com, PredictIt.org and Smarkets.com.
A positive number represents how much a bettor would win on a $100 wager. In this case, a bettor would win $327 on a $100 wager on Vance if he’s elected the next president.
Newsom has spoken out against President Donald Trump after he ordered the deployment of nearly 5,000 troops, including National Guard and Marines, to Los Angeles. They were deployed to protect federal buildings but are now also protecting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as they carry out arrests.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic congresswoman from New York, is the third choice to win the 2028 presidential election with a 6.5 percent chance (+1,438). Former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg is the fourth favorite with a 5.0 percent chance (19-1).
Newsom has a 12 percent chance (+733) to win the Democratic nomination in 2028, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 9.5 percent (+953) and Buttigieg at 9.0 percent (+1,011).
Vance has a 41.5 percent chance (+141) to win the Republican nomination. President Donald Trump is the second choice with an 8.5 percent chance (+1,076) despite the fact that the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office.
Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X. The Associated Press contributed to this story.
