With Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty absent from Saturday’s 150th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown is not the race we wish it was.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth betting.
The good news is it could have been worse, with Derby runner-up Journalism and the well-regarded Sandman, who finished seventh in the Derby, joining the lineup shortly before entries were drawn Monday. If not for that, we could have been left with one Derby runner — American Promise — entered, and one that was beaten by 38½ lengths.
Instead, the field for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness is an interesting one, starting with the three Derby runners.
There’s also:
— Two stakes winners — Gosger and River Thames — who contested earlier races on the Triple Crown trail before skipping the Derby;
— Two late bloomers — Clever Again and Goal Oriented — attempting to prove they belong among the country’s elite 3-year-olds;
— A local hope in Pay Billy;
— And even a rare foreign bred and raced colt in Heart of Honor, who has an unprecedented father-daughter tandem in his corner in trainer Jamie Osborne and jockey Saffie Osborne.
The Preakness poses a different challenge for handicappers than the Derby, because the field is typically half as large and observant horseplayers have a better sense of which horses have faced the strongest competition after watching the Derby.
In other words, cashing a winning ticket in the Preakness is easier, but the chances of collecting a lottery-like payout are much less.
Those who prefer to pursue the latter are in luck. Maryland racing officials have unveiled two new wagers connecting Friday’s Pimlico card featuring the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes for 3-year-old fillies with Saturday’s races, including the Preakness. The All Dirt Pick 5 starting Friday on race 10 and the All Stakes Pick 5 starting Friday on race 11 can be expected to generate some big payouts.
The weather might be a factor, as it was in the Derby. As of Thursday afternoon, the forecast for the Baltimore area calls for “an active weather day” on Friday, with up to 1.5 inches of rain, followed by lingering showers or thunderstorms before clearing Saturday.
Another factor to consider is how modern trends in the training of racehorses could be changing the dynamics of the Preakness. Form in the Kentucky Derby has long equated with success in Baltimore, with eight of 21 Derby winners (38.1 percent) going on to capture the Preakness, according to an analysis of Preaknesses from 2001 to 2024 published this week by HorseRacingNation.com. If you look at the top six Derby finishers over that period, the winning percentage rises to 62.5 percent.
But with top horses now racing far less often than their forebears, the Derby-Preakness pipeline might not be what it once was. Consider, for example, that the past five Preakness winners ran in races other than the Kentucky Derby, giving them additional time to prepare for the rigors of the race at Pimlico.
With Sovereignty and third-place Derby finisher Baeza electing to skip the Preakness to target the Belmont Stakes on June 7, a big question is raised about the 8-5 favorite Journalism, who finished 1½ lengths behind Sovereignty in the Derby. Can he perform at his best off a two-week turnaround, the shortest of his six-race career?
The answer is a resounding yes. It might not be the greatest career path these days, but Journalism is the way to go in the Preakness Stakes.
For starters, Journalism is one of only three graded stakes winners in the field, with three victories in the toughest races on the calendar. The others are Sandman, who captured the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and Gosger, who won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
Two other entrants have been beaten less than a length in a graded stakes — River Thames, third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and second in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth; and Heart of Honor, a narrowly beaten second in the Group 2 UAE Derby.
Based on speed figures, Journalism, the son of Curlin, also is the fastest horse in the field.
Plus, the Michael McCarthy-trained colt is highly professional in his races and tractable, giving jockey Umberto Rispoli options on where to place his mount depending on the pace. Journalism also has shown he can overcome trouble in a race and still win, as he did in taking down the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Journalism also should be able to get a ground-saving trip in the early stages of the Preakness after breaking from post 2, leaving him with plenty of energy to run down probable pacesetters Goal Oriented and Clever Again in the stretch.
To extract some value from the race, I will box Journalism in exactas with the three horses in the field that I think have the most upside: Heart of Honor (12-1 on the morning line), River Thames (9-2) and Clever Again (6-1). With a $5 base unit, that ticket will cost $30.
For those who want to go deeper, it’s also possible to construct two trifecta tickets along the same lines:
— Journalism/Heart of Honor, River Thames and Clever Again/All
— Heart of Honor, River Thames and Clever Again/Journalism/All
At a 50-cent base bet, those tickets will cost a total of $15, assuming there are no scratches.
Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.
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What: Preakness Stakes
When: Saturday
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore
TV: NBC (coverage 1 p.m.; post time 3:50 p.m.)
Favorite: Journalism, 8-5
