NFL teams have gone from worst to first in their division in 19 of the past 22 seasons.
On the flip side, the 49ers have gone from first to worst twice in the past five seasons. San Francisco followed up division titles and Super Bowl losses with fourth-place finishes in the NFC West in 2024 and 2020.
Based on division odds, the Niners, riddled with injuries last season en route to a 6-11 record, have the best chance to go from worst to first this season. They’re the +190 second choice at the Westgate SuperBook to win the NFC West behind the Rams (+160).
“We’ve got decent money on the 49ers at +190,” Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “They have an easy schedule. The Rams won the division last year, so that also gets them the first-place schedule, and that’s the advantage the 49ers have.
“There’s definitely something to that. That’s why I think we’ve seen so many of those teams go from last to first. It gets the ball rolling.”
Bears market
The Bears, who finished 5-12 last season, have the second-shortest odds for a quick turnaround under new coach Ben Johnson, the former Lions offensive coordinator.
Chicago is the +475 long shot to win the NFC North, where the other three teams — Lions (+130), Packers (+275) and Vikings (4-1) — went to the playoffs last season.
“It looks like the most competitive division is the NFC North. I think the Bears have a real chance, just given the coaching upgrade from last year’s disaster,” Salmons said. “I think everything is in place for the Bears to be dramatically improved this year.”
Chief concerns
The Chiefs have won nine consecutive AFC West crowns, the second-longest division title winning streak in NFL history behind the Patriots, who won 11 straight AFC East titles from 2009 to 2019.
Kansas City is a -125 favorite to win its 10th division title in a row, but the Chargers (+290) and Broncos (+375) are expected to contend after making the playoffs last season.
“If you look at first, second and third, the highest you go is Denver at +375, so obviously the odds are saying that any of those three teams has a realistic chance to win that division,” Salmons said. “A lot of people will argue the Chargers are better than the Broncos or vice versa. Everyone’s been waiting for the Chiefs to step back, but the Chiefs are so well run.
“I don’t think it’s going to happen (that the streak ends). But you never know with injuries.”
Raiders of the lost
The Raiders, who went 4-13 last season and finished fourth in the AFC West, are +1775 to win their first division title since 2002 under new coach Pete Carroll and new quarterback Geno Smith.
“They’re in the wrong division,” Salmons said. “I think the idea this year is to change the culture.”
The biggest division long shots, at 30-1, are the Giants to win the NFC East and the Browns to win the AFC North. The Jets are +1650 to win the AFC East, the Saints are 12-1 to win the NFC South, and the Titans are 8-1 to win the AFC South.
Riding Ravens
Besides the 49ers, bettors at the Westgate have backed the Broncos and Ravens, the -130 favorites to win the AFC North over the Bengals (+220) and Steelers (+505).
But Salmons advises Baltimore bettors to wait for better odds, noting that the Ravens trailed the Steelers by two games last season before rallying to win the division.
“You can usually bet it along the way and get them at a plus price at some point,” he said. “I wouldn’t be in a hurry to bet those real short odds teams. You need to see how the schedule sets up. Some of these teams, like the Eagles, Commanders and Lions, have really difficult schedules this year.”
Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is the -155 favorite to win the NFC East over Washington (+205) and the Cowboys (+825).
The Bills are the biggest division favorites at -275 to win the AFC East over the Dolphins (6-1) and Patriots (6-1).
The Texans are +105 favorites to win the AFC South over the Jaguars (+310), and the Buccaneers are even-money favorites to win the NFC South over the Falcons (+235).
“They are considered the two weakest divisions in football,” Salmons said.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
NFL division odds
At Westgate SuperBook
AFC West
Chiefs -125
Chargers +290
Broncos +375
Raiders +1775
AFC East
Bills -275
Dolphins 6-1
Patriots 6-1
Jets +1650
AFC North
Ravens -130
Bengals +220
Steelers +505
Browns 30-1
AFC South
Texans +105
Jaguars +310
Colts +330
Titans 8-1
NFC West
Rams +160
49ers +190
Cardinals +405
Seahawks +575
NFC East
Eagles -155
Commanders +205
Cowboys +825
Giants 30-1
NFC North
Lions +130
Packers +275
Vikings 4-1
Bears +475
NFC South
Buccaneers Even
Falcons +235
Panthers 4-1
Saints 12-1
