Jorge Mario Bergoglio was a 50-1 betting long shot to be elected pope in 2013, when the former Argentine cardinal beat the odds and took the name Pope Francis.
Bettors are banking on another long shot to succeed Pope Francis, who died April 21 at age 88.
While Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle continue to be the two clear favorites to win the papal election, Portuguese cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonca has gained momentum entering the conclave, which will commence Wednesday inside the Sistine Chapel.
Tolentino, a 50-1 long shot, has become the fourth-most backed cardinal in the market in the past month. He accounts for 7 percent of all bets placed in the UK, according to Oddschecker.com, the UK’s biggest betting aggregator.
“Outsiders shouldn’t be discounted in the next pope betting market,” Oddschecker UK country manager Sam Eaton said Tuesday in an email. “Back in 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was 50-1 just two days before being elected.
“We likely won’t have long to wait, either. Bookmakers have (Thursday) as the favorite for the date of the papal announcement at (+120). (Friday) follows at (+175), while (Wednesday) is considered unlikely at 11-1.”
Tolentino, at 59 one of the youngest candidates to be the next pope, is a poet and biblical scholar. Pope Francis named him archivist and librarian of the Vatican Library in 2018 and the Vatican’s culture chief in 2022.
Parolin is the favorite, though his odds have drifted from +225 to +275 in recent days, according to Oddschecker. Tagle has likewise seen his odds ease from 3-1 to +350.
While Pope Francis was the first non-European pope in more than 1,200 years and the first Latin American pope, there’s a good chance the next pope will also make history.
Tagle, known as the “Asian Francis” for his progressive views and dedication to social issues, would be the first Asian pope.
Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson is tied with Italian cardinal Matteo Zuppi as the 7-1 third choice. Turkson, who was the favorite entering the 2013 conclave, would be the first African pope in more than 1,500 years if elected.
Parolin, 70, who will preside over the papal election, would be the first Italian pope in 47 years.
Italian cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa is the only other cardinal with single-digit odds at 9-1.
The College of Cardinals will meet in a closed-door conclave to debate and then vote for their preferred candidate until a new pope is chosen. A two-thirds majority of 133 cardinal electors is required to elect a new pope.
French cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline is the biggest liability at BetOnline, where his odds have been slashed from triple digits to 14-1.
Bettors at BetOnline, an offshore book that isn’t regulated in the U.S., are backing Francis to be the papal name of the next pope. Francis’ odds have dropped from 8-1 to +150.
Betting on the next pope isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
