With Journalism the solid favorite in Saturday’s 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, I’ve been called on to commit some journalism and offer my opinion on the best way to cash a ticket or two on “the fastest two minutes in sports.”
Like the other 19 starters in the 1¼-mile race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, Journalism is a 3-year-old thoroughbred who will be attempting to run farther than he has ever gone.
What sets the 3-1 morning-line favorite apart is his sterling record (four wins from five starts in Southern California), his tractable running style, his strong closing kick and his ability to overcome trouble, as he did in the Santa Anita Derby.
Trainer Mike McCarthy has one prior start in the Derby and jockey Umberto Rispoli has two, but both are seasoned veterans who have proven themselves on other big stages.
But as anyone who follows horse racing, and the Kentucky Derby in particular, can tell you, there are no sure things. This year’s field is packed with improving horses from across the U.S. and Japan capable of rewriting the Journalism storyline and grabbing the headlines — not to mention the lion’s share of the $5 million purse.
Here are some other storylines for the race:
Bullet points
— There’s always a local angle. Las Vegas businessman Ron Winchell is continuing the Derby quest initiated by his late father, doughnut king Verne Winchell, with Tiztastic, winner of the Louisiana Derby. The colt will be the 14th Derby entrant for the Winchells, whose best outcome so far was a second-place finish by favored Epicenter in 2022.
— Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is back under the Twin Spires after a three-year ban stemming from a failed drug test by Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first in the 2021 Derby but was subsequently disqualified. Baffert will saddle juvenile champ Citizen Bull in search of a record seventh Derby victory, which would break a tie with the legendary Ben Jones.
— Two Japan-based horses — Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe — are in the field, each attempting to become the first horse from the Asian nation to capture the Derby. Their connections were no doubt encouraged by Forever Young’s narrow miss last year.
— Lonnie Briley, 72, a small-time Louisiana trainer, will saddle the first Derby starter since taking out his license in 1991. He purchased Coal Battle for $70,000 at a Texas yearling sale, and he has already earned nearly $1.2 million.
Race breakdown
Most handicappers are predicting a fast early pace, with Citizen Bull, Neoequos, East Avenue and Owen Almighty all in the mix.
I agree that the first three will be involved in the battle for the lead, but Owen Almighty is far outside in the 19 hole and will likely try to tuck in just behind pacesetters. That didn’t work for him in the Blue Grass Stakes, and I expect him to again fade out of contention by the time the field reaches the stretch.
And while Neoequos is fast, he’s not as fast as Citizen Bull or East Avenue. I see him becoming discouraged early or taking back, neither of which would help his cause.
That would leave Citizen Bull and East Avenue out front, with the latter likely to try to sit just off Citizen Bull so as to avoid a suicidal pace duel.
There is one horse who is not a confirmed front-runner who should be able to find a spot right behind the dueling leaders: Baeza, who drew into the race Thursday when the Baffert-trained Rodriguez was scratched.
Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs, will start from post 20, but reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat should be able to find a spot just a length or two behind the leaders before the field reaches the first turn.
That would give him the opportunity to get first crack at the front-runners and get a jump on Journalism, who prefers to settle a few lengths farther back in the early stages and then come running late as the field turns for home.
But since I see a somewhat slower pace battle than most handicappers, or at least those who labor in the journalism trenches, I am going to focus my betting strategy on Baeza and Journalism.
Betting slips
Baeza, who finished just three-quarters of a length behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, has more appeal as a win bet, with morning-line odds of 12-1. I don’t expect to get that price, but will bet him to win at odds of 6-1 or higher. I’ll bet Journalism to win if he is 7-2 or higher.
I’ll also box Baeza and Journalism in exactas with Burnham Square, Grande, Publisher, Sandman, Sovereignty and Tiztastic.
I’ll also play a trifecta constructed thus:
■ Baeza and Journalism.
■ Baeza, Journalism, Burnham Square, East Avenue, Grande, Sovereignty and Tiztastic.
■ Baeza, Journalism, Burnham Square, East Avenue, Grande, Sovereignty and Tiztastic.
That would be a $30 ticket with a 50-cent base bet.
Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.
Up next
What: Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
TV: NBC (coverage 11:30 a.m.; post time 3:57 p.m.)
Favorite: Journalism, 3-1
