NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug
Panthers (0-2) at Raiders (1-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Raiders -6, 40
Analysis: With experienced and longtime NFL quarterback Andy Dalton now starting for the Panthers in place of 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, and the Raiders coming off one of their biggest wins since relocating to Las Vegas, this is the perfect letdown spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina pulls the outright upset. The Raiders, coming off a 26-23 upset win at Baltimore last week as 9-point underdogs, are on a 1-10 skid against the spread as favorites of more than 3 points.
Pick: Panthers 27, Raiders 24
Chargers (2-0) at Steelers (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -2½, 35
Analysis: It appears Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will start despite suffering an ankle injury in last week’s win over Carolina. Los Angeles coach Jim Harbaugh is 32-13-2 ATS in non-division games, including 17-4-2 ATS on the road and 8-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Pittsburgh is 0-5-1 ATS in its first home game of the season over the past six years.
Pick: Chargers 23, Steelers 20
Bears (1-1) at Colts (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -1, 43½
Analysis: The Colts are in dire need of a victory to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Indianapolis is on an 11-2 ATS run against the NFC North, and it’s 18-7 ATS in Week 3 of the season. I’ll take the more desperate short home chalk.
Pick: Colts 24, Bears 20
Texans (2-0) at Vikings (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -2, 46
Analysis: Vikings star wide receiver Justin Jefferson is playing after leaving last week’s 23-17 home win over the 49ers with a quad injury. Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last seven NFC road games. The short home underdog looks like the smart play.
Pick: Vikings 27, Texans 21
Giants (0-2) at Browns (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -6½, 39
Analysis: One thing I know, being a born-and-raised Clevelander, is the Browns are usually poison when they’re favored. The Giants have a porous defense and a bad quarterback in Daniel Jones, but this number is too high, and winless New York needs this game a lot more than Cleveland.
Pick: Giants 18, Browns 15
Eagles (1-1) at Saints (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Saints -3, 49½
Analysis: Teams never learn. The Eagles blew the “Monday Night Football” game because they played a prevent defense in the final 1:40, despite the fact that Atlanta was out of timeouts. This boils down to bad coaching on the part of Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni, who also made a questionable decision to throw on third-and-3 at the Atlanta 10 with 1:46 left. When Saquon Barkley dropped a pass from Jalen Hurts, not only did the Eagles settle for a field goal, but the clock stopped to give the Falcons more time on their subsequent game-winning touchdown drive in a 22-21 win. The Saints dominated in every aspect of their 44-19 win at Dallas after whipping the Panthers 47-10 in Week 1. The Eagles are on a 1-6-1 ATS skid after a Monday night game.
Pick: Saints 31, Eagles 20
Broncos (0-2) at Buccaneers (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -6½, 41
Analysis: The Bucs are getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers and betting public as close to a touchdown favorite. Denver hasn’t looked good, but coach Sean Payton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog against teams coming off a straight-up and ATS win. Tampa Bay is on a 1-10 ATS skid in Week 3 of the season, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Pick: Broncos 21, Buccaneers 17
Packers (1-1) at Titans (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -2½, 38
Analysis: Titans quarterback Will Levis has been a disaster, directly causing both of their losses with a costly pick-six in their Week 1 loss to the Bears and a fumble near the goal line in last week’s loss to the Jets. Packers quarterback Malik Willis was adequate enough as a game manager in Green Bay’s 16-10 home win over the Colts. Levis has to stop making terrible mistakes, and Willis is unlikely to have a second straight “good enough” week. With that in mind, I’ll pass on this game.
Pick: Titans 20, Packers 17
Dolphins (1-1) at Seahawks (2-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -4½, 41½
Analysis: This could be another “rally around the backup quarterback” game, as Skylar Thompson takes over in Miami for Tua Tagovailoa, who was placed on injured reserve after he was diagnosed with his third concussion in two years and will be sidelined for at least four games. The number is over 3, so I’ll give a weak endorsement to the fish.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 28
Lions (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Lions -3, 51½
Analysis: The Lions lost a game they should’ve won last week to the Buccaneers, and Arizona won by much more than anyone would’ve thought in its 41-10 romp over the Rams. This is usually an excellent spot for a regression back to the norm. The Lions are on a 6-0 ATS run off back-to-back home games. Arizona is on a 1-6 ATS skid in the second of back-to-back home games. Arizona is also 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against NFC North opponents.
Pick: Lions 38, Cardinals 24
Ravens (0-2) at Cowboys (1-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Ravens -1, 47½
Analysis: This is a tough game to handicap. The Ravens are 0-2 and in dire need of a win. But Dallas got destroyed 44-19 at home by New Orleans and is looking to remedy that embarrassment. I have a 23-13 ATS (64 percent) system in which the Cowboys qualify, so I’ll make that the deciding factor.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Ravens 23
49ers (1-1) at Rams (0-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -7, 44
Analysis: Under normal circumstances, I would be all over a home division underdog getting a touchdown. The problem is the Rams are dealing with five offensive linemen potentially out with injuries and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua also out with injuries. I’ll pass.
Pick: 49ers 28, Rams 24
Chiefs (2-0) at Falcons (1-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Chiefs -3, 46½
Analysis: The Falcons’ last-second comeback win at Philadelphia on “Monday Night Football” should bode well for them in this game. The Chiefs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 “Sunday Night Football” games and are on a 1-5 ATS skid in the first of consecutive road games. I like the under as well.
Pick: Falcons 23, Chiefs 17
Jaguars (0-2) at Bills (2-0)
Time: 4:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Bills -5½, 45½
Analysis: The Bills look to be in a very advantageous situation here. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 ATS in his last six starts. Lawrence doesn’t look comfortable, and his passes are often more like wounded ducks.
Pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 14
Commanders (1-1) at Bengals (0-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC
Line/total: Bengals -7½, 47
Analysis: The Bengals are 21-6 ATS from Week 3 forward under coach Zac Taylor against teams coming off a straight-up and ATS win. The Bengals are also 15-3-1 ATS in Week 3 of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS under Taylor. Washington is on a 2-10 ATS skid after hosting a division foe and 0-5-1 ATS after playing the Giants.
Pick: Bengals 24, Commanders 14
