The Raiders, in an era when NFL teams are averse to using top-10 picks on running backs, made a bold move when they selected Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty sixth overall in April’s draft.
The team is saying it’s confident Jeanty’s production will help it become a winning ball club. Now it’s on him and the Raiders to make good on that prediction.
The question is what Jeanty, 21, has to do to make the pick a success. It’s a complex question in a team sport. Running back Josh Jacobs, a 2019 first-round pick, led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022 with 1,653. But the Raiders finished just 6-11 because quarterback Derek Carr didn’t play up to his usual standards and the team’s defense struggled.
In the same vein, it won’t mean much if Jeanty lights it up but the club can’t make any headway in the AFC West. That’ll just lead to more questions about whether the Raiders would have been better off targeting a different position in the draft.
Potential production
The history of top-10 running backs suggests Jeanty should be productive as a rookie.
Saquon Barkley, the second overall pick in 2018, led the NFL with 2,028 yards from scrimmage his first season with the Giants. Bijan Robinson, picked eighth overall in 2023 by the Falcons, had 976 rushing yards and 1,463 yards from scrimmage as a rookie.
There’s no reason Jeanty, who is listed at 5-foot-8, 211 pounds, can’t follow in their footsteps.
He was the Heisman Trophy runner-up last season after running for 2,601 yards on 374 carries. Only Hall of Famer Barry Sanders ever finished with more rushing yards in a single college campaign.
Jeanty’s rare blend of speed, power, balance, vision and toughness should translate to the NFL right away. He also has a competent quarterback to keep defenses honest in Geno Smith and a creative, proven offensive coordinator in Chip Kelly.
Jeanty could easily finish with more than 1,000 yards rushing next year if he stays healthy throughout the regular season. He also was a featured part of the Raiders passing attack during organized team activities, so his all-around production should have him in the mix for offensive rookie of the year.
Making it meaningful
Of course, it’s up to the team to translate all those yards into wins.
Barkley and Robinson, for all their individual success as rookies, didn’t earn many victories. The Giants won just five games in 2018, while the Falcons won seven in 2023.
The key difference for Jeanty may be his quarterback. Smith, 34, was 27-22 as the Seahawks starter the past three seasons. Barkley played with a 37-year-old Eli Manning, while Robinson’s quarterbacks were Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
The Raiders hope Smith and Jeanty give them the same kind of boost quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott provided the Cowboys in 2016.
Dallas went 4-12 in 2015. But after taking Elliott fourth overall in the 2016 draft and Prescott in the fourth round, the team improved to 13-3 the next year.
No one should be expecting the Raiders, who were 4-13 last season, to make that big of a leap. But Jeanty, along with Smith, could be the catalyst for a significant turnaround next season if he ends up being productive as other rookie running backs have been in the past.
Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X.
