The Oklahoma City Thunder shattered the NBA record for scoring differential this season, outscoring teams by 12.9 points per game to top the previous mark set by the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers (12.3).
The Thunder also went 29-1 against the Eastern Conference, the best interconference record in NBA history.
Sharp bettors and the betting public alike are banking on Oklahoma City to extend those trends in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday against the Indiana Pacers.
The Thunder are consensus 9½-point favorites over the Pacers after the line opened at 8½ at multiple sportsbooks. The total is 231.
“We got some sharp play on Oklahoma City -9, so we’re up to 9½ on that one,” Westgate SuperBook NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “The sharps laid the 9, and the public is laying more Thunder in that game, too. It looks like it’s headed more to 10 than it would be to 9.”
Systemplays.com handicapper Doug Fitz made the Thunder his best bet in the series opener as well, noting that NBA Finals home favorites of 4½ points or more are on a 21-10-2 run against the spread (67.7 percent) and NBA Finals Game 1 favorites are on a 9-2 ATS streak.
“I’m usually all over big ’dogs, but the numbers are too good to ignore,” Fitz (@fitz_doug) said. “Indiana won’t lay down in the series, but Game 1 looks like an easy OKC win.”
The Thunder had the NBA’s best record this season at 68-14 and also were the league’s biggest moneymaker for bettors with a 53-25-4 ATS mark (68 percent). They swept the season series against the Pacers, winning and covering both matchups, and both games went over the total.
“My guess is we’re going to need the Pacers pretty much throughout the series,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.
The Thunder are prohibitive -650 favorites to win the series after the line opened at -750. Sherman said the Pacers, who are 5-1 series underdogs, have garnered a little more support than Oklahoma City.
“We have very little on the favorite just because it’s a big price,” he said. “People looking to support the Thunder are looking for other ways to do it, betting them to win 4-1 or 4-2 or something like that.”
The most money wagered on the exact series result at the Westgate is on Oklahoma City to win in five games, which is the +215 favorite. The most tickets are on the Thunder to win in six, which pays +405. An Oklahoma City sweep is the +325 second choice.
Eyeing historic upset
If the Pacers somehow shock the Thunder and win the franchise’s first NBA title, they would be the biggest preseason long shots (66-1) and longest shots entering the playoffs (80-1) ever to win it all. They would also tie the 2004 Detroit Pistons (5-1) as the biggest long shots entering the NBA Finals to win, according to sportsoddshistory.com.
Indiana’s NBA championship odds skyrocketed to 150-1 in mid-February at the Westgate, which took a $400 wager to win $60,000 and two $200 wagers to win $30,000 each on the Pacers.
“Going into the playoffs, barring injury, you thought OKC and Boston or Cleveland would’ve been competing for this,” Sherman said. “Indiana is the type of team, the way they shoot, they can beat anybody on any given night. That’s why I think they can get a game, maybe two. But it’s tough for me to see them winning four times against this Thunder team, as well as the Thunder are built.
“They’ve had some lopsided wins at home, and it will be tough for Indiana to overcome that.”
Finals MVP
NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 39 points against the Pacers this season, is the overwhelming -600 favorite to be named Finals MVP.
“He had a 45-point game against the Pacers, and his over-under (prop) in Game 1 is 33½,” Sherman said. “It would be tough to see another player put up production close to him.”
Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton is the 7-1 second choice, and Pascal Siakam is next at 18-1. Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams is 35-1, and Chet Holmgren is at 60-1 after opening at 80-1.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
NBA Finals odds
At Westgate SuperBook
Series price
Pacers +500
Thunder -650
Exact series result
Thunder win in five games +215
Thunder win in four games +325
Thunder win in six games +405
Thunder win in seven games +465
Pacers win in six games +1125
Pacers win in seven games +1125
Pacers win in five games 35-1
Pacers win in four games 40-1
MVP
Up to 300-1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -600
Tyrese Haliburton 7-1
Pascal Siakam 18-1
Jalen Williams 35-1
Chet Holmgren 60-1
Myles Turner 300-1
