There will be no Triple Crown on the line in Saturday’s 157th running of the Belmont Stakes, but it still figures to be one hell of a horse race.
The top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby — Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza — are among the eight horses entered in the $2 million race, which was shifted to Saratoga Race Course and shortened to 1¼ miles from its traditional 1½ miles for the second year in a row to accommodate the ongoing renovation of Belmont Park.
Recalling the stretch battle in Louisville, some handicappers are billing the Belmont Stakes as a showdown between Derby winner Sovereignty and Journalism, the Derby runner-up who came back to impressively capture the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico three weeks ago.
They are almost certain to be the top two betting choices Saturday, with Journalism the 8-5 favorite and Sovereignty 2-1 on the morning line.
More than top two
But portraying the third leg of the Triple Crown as a two-horse race ignores the presence of Baeza (4-1), who closed fastest of all in the Derby, beaten by just 1½ lengths, before sitting out the Preakness along with Sovereignty.
It also discounts the chances of horses like Rodriguez (6-1), who was scratched two days before the Derby and then missed the Preakness with a minor foot injury, and up-and-comers like Hill Road (10-1) and Crudo (15-1).
And there are plenty of other intangibles that could lead to a different outcome than we saw in Kentucky.
For starters, the pace should be more reasonable than it was in the Derby, when a quick, contested duel set the table for closers to dominate at the end. Only two horses — Rodriguez and Crudo — are likely to be up front in the early stages of the Belmont, and their well-seasoned Hall of Fame jockeys, Mike Smith and John Velazquez, respectively, are unlikely to ask their mounts to engage in an energy-sapping pace duel.
Weather may again be a factor, as it was for the Derby.
As of Thursday, the National Weather Service forecast called for a 50 percent chance of rain in Saratoga Springs on Saturday, including the possibility of severe thunderstorms near midday.
A wet track could be advantageous for the Derby runners, who had to navigate a sloppy track on May 3, as well as long shot Uncaged (30-1), who owns two victories over muddy surfaces. But remember, wet tracks at different venues often play differently, so a horse who loved the slop at Churchill Downs may hate a tiring, muddy track at Saratoga.
The profile for Saratoga’s main dirt track also differs from those of Churchill Downs and Belmont Park. There is only one other Belmont Stakes at Saratoga for comparison — last year’s victory from just off the pace by Dornoch.
But the Travers Stakes, a 1¼-mile race for 3-year-olds run each year in August at the Spa, also provides a decent yardstick, and it too tends to favor horses with speed, with seven of the past 10 winners racing within two lengths of the leader in the early going.
This could play to the strengths of Rodriguez and Crudo and could disadvantage deep closers like Sovereignty, Uncaged and Heart of Honor.
And of course there’s the distance to consider. The Derby runners all have shown they can get 1¼ miles, and Heart of Honor has run well at 1 3/16 miles. None of the others has raced beyond 1⅛ miles, meaning their ability to get that final furlong is still an open question.
But enough about what we can’t know until the Belmont Stakes is run. What do we know, and how can we make some money off a race in which the top runners are so evenly matched?
Race breakdown
To begin with, we can safely say that Journalism and Sovereignty are top-class racehorses in a 3-year-old crop that many believe is one of the strongest in recent years. Sovereignty’s extended rally in the Derby and Journalism’s bold move into a rapidly closing gap between horses in the stretch of the Preakness were breathtaking and bode well for their chances Saturday.
But if Rodriguez and Crudo set sensible fractions in the early going, the advantage shifts to Journalism and jockey Umberto Rispoli. The Mike McCarthy-trained son of Curlin typically races much closer to the pace than Sovereignty — he was more than five lengths to the good of his eventual conqueror after the first half-mile of the Derby.
That should allow him to get first jump on the front-runners in the stretch, as he did in the Derby, and have more left in the tank for the finish.
That makes him the key horse to build winning tickets around. I’ll play him in exacta boxes with Sovereignty, Rodriguez and Baeza, and in trifectas structured thus:
— Journalism/Sovereignty, Rodriguez and Baeza/Hill Road, Sovereignty, Rodriguez and Crudo.
— Sovereignty, Rodriguez and Baeza/Journalism/Hill Road, Sovereignty, Rodriguez and Crudo.
Using a $2 base for the exactas and a $1 base for the trifectas, those bets would cost a total of $36.
As for win bets, I’ll steer clear of Journalism and Sovereignty given their expected low odds but will consider Rodriguez and/or Baeza at their morning-line odds or higher.
Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.
Up next
What: Belmont Stakes
When: Saturday
Where: Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
TV: Fox (coverage 3:30 p.m.; post time 4:04 p.m.)
Favorite: Journalism, 8-5
