There are no plans for UNLV to reverse course and leave the Mountain West to join a reconfigured Pac-12.
But like seemingly everything else in the world of college sports these days, the smoke starting to form around the situation could quickly become a raging fire should the winds shift.
The university’s athletic programs sit front and center at a dispute between two leagues hoping to carve out their niche on the West Coast in the shifting power structure of collegiate sports.
UNLV’s decision in September to stay in the Mountain West essentially kept the league viable. A move to the Pac-12 would complete that conference’s rebuild as the pre-eminent West Coast league and almost certainly the best non-Power Four conference.
But that tug-of-war has largely come to a stalemate. UNLV remains committed for now to being the prize catch in a Mountain West that gave the school massive concessions to stay, instead of becoming one of the fish in a fresh Pac-12 stream that hopes to one day become a sparkling pond.
UNLV’s decision wasn’t the result of short-term thinking, however. It was never about choosing a big payday and likely domination of a lesser league.
Instead, it was viewed as the best path to a Big 12 invitation that has long been the goal of the athletic department and may now be a realistic possibility.
There are a lot of moving pieces to be settled and wrinkles to iron out between now and then, but here is a look at where things stand.
Stating their cases
While the Mountain West and Pac-12 are conferences with long histories of settling differences on the field, the most important current competition is taking place in court.
The leagues have agreed to enter mediation as a step toward potential settlement of ongoing lawsuits related to five Mountain West schools (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State) announcing their intention to depart for the Pac-12.
According to sources close to the process, a date is expected to be set before the end of May, though no formal schedule has been made.
At issue are the exit fees contractually owed by the schools for leaving and so-called “poaching fees” that were agreed to as part of a football scheduling agreement between the Mountain West and the Pac-12’s last two schools, Oregon State and Washington State, for the 2024 season.
The Mountain West claims the agreement — which calls for the Pac-12 to pay $10 million per school with escalators for multiple defectors for a total of $55 million — is solid, but a federal lawsuit filed by the Pac-12 in September challenged whether the poaching penalty was even a valid legal remedy.
While exit fees are a standard practice in college sports, Colorado State and Utah State filed a lawsuit against the Mountain West that was later joined by Boise State. The intention of that case is to avoid the fees, which are estimated to be around $18 million per school.
That would bring the total payment to the Mountain West to around $145 million, a number that appears very unlikely to be collected in full.
Mediation does not mean there will be a quick resolution. The ruling will not be binding, so only a mutually agreeable decision would move the needle toward a settlement. That seems a long shot with the amount of animosity that has been festering and the massive amounts of money involved.
The Mountain West has been steadfast in its legal standing and believes it is entitled to the full exit fees and poaching penalties, insisting its acceptance of mediation isn’t indicative of a weak hand. Instead, it was done in hopes of resolving the matter quickly.
Any settlement is likely to reduce the amount of money the Mountain West is awarded. That could raise new questions.
Means to an end
When the five schools departed the Mountain West for the Pac-12, UNLV was left in a powerful position.
The Pac-12 needed one more addition to reach eight football-playing members and be recognized by the NCAA, while the Mountain West was clinging to relevancy with UNLV and, to some extent, Air Force as the final threads holding it together.
While the Pac-12 was the bright, shiny object that promised riches and national acclaim, the Mountain West believed it was about to come into a whole lot of money as a result of the departures and used that future treasure chest to entice UNLV to stay and Air Force to turn down overtures from the American Athletic Conference.
UNLV also received other concessions that will make the school a big power broker in league matters, but the money was always the key to the deal, for multiple reasons.
While the influx of cash would be vital for an athletic department in need of funds, like many around the country, the war chest would also enable UNLV to brace for the possibility of a temporarily reduced share of media rights as part of a potential deal to enter the Big 12.
An invitation isn’t just a pie-in-the-sky fantasy. The Big 12, under commissioner Brett Yormark, has been public about its love of the Las Vegas market, and the football program’s success and facilities have made the school more attractive than ever.
UNLV is slated to receive 24.5 percent of the first $61 million collected from the Pac-12 and departing Mountain West schools, and that same share of any money between $79 million and $100 million. (The untapped $18 million in between those two distribution pools would be used to fund the recruitment of new members.)
That’s on top of UNLV’s share of regular revenue streams, including the league’s vow to ensure the new media deal beginning in 2026, expected to be announced this summer, will not reduce per-school payouts below $3.5 million per year.
In the event every dollar was collected by the Mountain West from the Pac-12, UNLV would be looking at a total payment of $31.6 million on top of the media deal.
Grant of rights
But what if the riches are never paid, or the money is tied up in court for a long time?
That’s where things could get complicated.
UNLV, along with the remaining schools in the Mountain West, has signed a grant of rights committing to the league and permitting the conference to negotiate media rights from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2032. It went into effect on the date it was signed, which for UNLV was in December.
However, there could be a gray area.
The grant of rights indicates the incentive payouts are contingent upon the Mountain West’s “having collected a significant portion” of the fees. It also says the league will make “commercially reasonable efforts” to collect, though there doesn’t appear to be specific remedies should that money never come in.
That could be a tipping point.
While the document binds UNLV to the league and makes it quite punitive should it decide to reverse course and try to join the Pac-12 — UNLV would have to pay exorbitant exit fees and theoretically has already signed over its broadcast rights on home games through 2032 — it could eventually be worth challenging, especially if the Pac-12 has already defeated the Mountain West in court at that point.
But UNLV would almost certainly need similar assurances of a penalty-free escape door to the Big 12. That could be a non-starter for the Pac-12.
Next for Pac-12
In addition to the legal challenges, the Pac-12 is also battling a bit of an existential crisis.
Not only did UNLV turn down the league, but so did Memphis and Tulane. The Pac-12 added Gonzaga for basketball in what should be a phenomenal league, but one more football program is needed just to achieve the minimum standard for conference titles to be recognized.
Sacramento State is begging for inclusion in the Pac-12 and making massive investments in athletics, but it wouldn’t solve the immediate problem because it can’t be a full-fledged FBS member until at least 2027.
Texas State has also been mentioned, but university President Kelly Damphousse appeared to rebut claims the school would be willing to take a reduced share of media revenues with a snarky social media post last month featuring a picture of a full-to-the-brim bowl of lobster bisque.
“People sometimes think I’d be happy with a half bowl of soup,” he wrote. “After all, a cup of soup is better than no soup at all. But for me, it’s a full bowl or nothing.”
The Pac-12 also can’t take just any program if it wants to regain its past status in the national power structure and its respected voice in NCAA matters. The new member has to be relevant.
Merger likely off table
Things have been at a standstill in the bitter battle between the two leagues for several weeks, though it does appear there could be significant movement once mediation begins.
The money that eventually changes hands between the Pac-12 and Mountain West will almost certainly decide whether the possibility of more defections exists.
A wide range of outcomes remains possible, though the possibility of a merger between the leagues seems to be losing momentum now that several additional schools have been brought into the fold in both leagues, further splitting the pot.
While it would have likely been the best-case outcome from the beginning, it would have required a great deal of compromise that Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez and Pac-12 counterpart Teresa Gould didn’t seem to have much appetite to make.
That ship seems to have sailed, but feedback from media partners as both seek new TV deals could certainly change the equation.
The most fun idea to come out of weeks of speculation remains the (perhaps joking) suggestion of an English-soccer-style promotion-and-relegation system in which two leagues would be formed with top teams from the lower division being promoted each year in each sport and the struggling teams sent down.
It’s extremely unlikely, but stranger things have happened in this saga filled with twists and turns.
Perhaps the mediation table will be a time for cooler heads to prevail.
Perhaps it will just be the start of more chaos.
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Contact Adam Hill at [email protected]. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.
