Ashton Jeanty is a phenomenal player whose character by all accounts might be more impressive than the sensational highlight reels he created at Boise State.
He’s likely to maximize every carry, even if it’s turning 1 yard into 3 yards, and there’s no reason to think he can’t be a Pro Bowler for the Raiders. Jeanty should boost the offense’s run game and has already had success at Allegiant Stadium, as UNLV fans are well aware.
The Raiders made a safe choice that probably will be backed up by Jeanty’s production and presence in the locker room and community. It will be remembered well by history.
But none of that means he was the right pick in the first round of the NFL draft Thursday. Running backs do matter, but they are a luxury in the modern NFL.
Economics of roster building
General manager John Spytek lamented last week the narrative that the position had been devalued in the modern NFL and wondered where such a silly theory had developed.
The answer is that it came from the growing influence of analytics in terms of roster building.
For people who still see that as a dirty word, look at it as more of a matter of economics. Supply and demand. Opportunity cost. These are common principles in business that have been applied to sports, and that’s a good thing. Sorry, the nerds are pretty smart.
The drop-off from the top tier of running backs to the next level is nowhere near as severe as the drop-off from the top players at premium positions — such as quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver and edge rusher — and backs are dependent on others doing their job. Success in the run game has come to be created by scheme, offensive line play and passing success more than individual talent in the backfield.
It’s how most successful franchises operate now and why Jeanty, taken with the sixth pick, is the highest-picked running back since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018.
It’s also how many observers expected the Raiders to conduct business with Spytek in charge, but the first-year general manager reiterated Thursday he’s not sure how that line of thinking got started.
“I don’t know where that came from. I was being honest,” Spytek said. “We just try to evaluate the players for who they are and add great football players and great people, as Ashton is.
“Running backs score touchdowns, and touchdowns, I think, are pretty important.”
Jeanty hopes he can be the exception to the rule and shut up the naysayers in the analytics community.
“I’m very proud of (defying conventional wisdom),” he said. “I’m just thankful for this opportunity. And I’m going to show everybody the position is valuable and it is great to take an exceptional running back in the first round.”
Betting on Jeanty
Spytek and coach Pete Carroll better hope they and Jeanty are right. They have a great deal riding on Jeanty and must maximize the rest of this draft and the next couple of seasons to make sure they build a roster of which Jeanty’s immense talent translates into wins and not empty stats.
It’s a big risk. And none of this is to say it was a terrible pick. The Raiders were in a tough position with the top offensive lineman (fourth) and top defensive tackle (fifth) off the board.
Two offensive tackles — Armand Membou at No. 7 and Kelvin Banks Jr. at No. 9 — went in the three picks after the Raiders took Jeanty. While that’s a premium position of some need, especially with the Kolton Miller contract situation, the Raiders might not have had either player in the same tier as Jeanty. If it was close, the prudent move would be to lean to a tackle, but it might not have been close in their mind.
The best course of action, by far, would have been to try to trade down. But there might not have been any takers. While it’s believed the Bears would have been willing to trade up from No. 10, there is no firm evidence of an offer. And the Raiders already have nine picks, so it would have probably required some premium selections from Chicago to make that happen.
Again, Jeanty probably will be an exceptional player for the Raiders. But so was Barkley, whose biggest success came when he joined a contender. Just like Christian McCaffrey.
Running backs do matter. Elite performers at the position can make a good team great. They can elevate top offensive units into a different stratosphere. But it usually takes a good supporting cast.
That’s not a position the Raiders are in.
Contact Adam Hill at [email protected]. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.
