It’s hard to beat a team three times in a season.
At least that’s the well-worn narrative that Kentucky will try to rewrite in its Sweet 16 showdown Friday against SEC rival Tennessee.
The Wildcats swept the season series, stunning the Volunteers 78-73 as 10½-point road underdogs Jan. 28 and upsetting them again 75-64 as 3½-point home underdogs Feb. 11.
Sharp bettors at the Westgate SuperBook are banking on Kentucky to at least cover the spread for the third time this season against Tennessee, which is a 4½-point favorite.
Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw also wagered on the Wildcats, in spite of the season sweep.
“Kentucky’s beaten them twice, which is actually a negative, not a positive. But Kentucky’s playing really well right now,” Whitelaw said. “Tennessee will be a little more motivated, being they lost twice to them already. That isn’t the best thing, but Kentucky does know how to play them. It should be a very close game.”
It’s not always difficult to beat a team three times in a season. Alabama won and covered all three meetings with Kentucky this season. Duke also defeated North Carolina three times and Auburn beat Ole Miss three times.
Other sharp plays at the SuperBook are on Alabama -4½ over BYU (now -5½) and the Maryland-Florida over, which opened at 155 and has been bet up to 158, according to Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray.
Here are six more best bets on the Sweet 16 from contestants in the Review-Journal March Madness Challenge. South Point studio host Alex White and CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall went 7-5 against the spread in the first round and hit their best bet to tie for the contest lead.
Kentucky-Tennessee U144½
“This will be the third meeting this year between Tennessee and Kentucky, which favors the defenses,” said White (@alexwhitee). “(Tennessee coach) Rick Barnes has always been defense-first. The Vols are a top-three defense in the country and it is their fifth consecutive year being (in the) top five defensively. They also play at the 19th-slowest pace out of 364 teams.
“(Kentucky coach) Mark Pope’s defense is one of the top teams in the country guarding the 3-point line. It doesn’t hurt that this game will be played in a dome (at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis), where depth perception is always an issue in these big stadiums.”
Arkansas (+5½) over Texas Tech
No. 10 seed Arkansas is the only double-digit seed remaining and Marshall expects it to advance under coach John Calipari.
“Since February, Arkansas has been a different team,” Marshall said. “Lots of length and athleticism, especially down low. … The backcourt is as good as any in the Sweet 16.
“Arkansas is good enough to storm the Final Four. It finally clicked for Calipari late this season.”
WagerTalk owner Kelly Stewart is on the other side with Texas Tech as her best bet.
“I play this understanding Arkansas has been on an ATS tear, including two straight-up underdog wins. Regression is coming for the Hogs,” said Stewart (@kellyinvegas). “If Tech plays clean basketball, they run away with this one.”
Michigan State (-3½) over Ole Miss
Pro handicapper Paul Stone and Whitelaw like Michigan State to move on to the Elite Eight.
“Ole Miss was 19 of 39 on 3-pointers in its opening two games of the NCAA Tournament (against North Carolina and Iowa State). Michigan State, however, defends the 3-point line as well as anybody in the country,” said Stone (@paulstonesports). “In fact, the Spartans lead the nation in opponent 3-point percentage at just 27.8 percent, so the Rebels have their work cut out for them.”
Florida (-6) over Maryland
“The Gators looked very vulnerable and were very lucky to survive against UConn,” Systemplays.com handicapper Doug Fitz said. “I expect a more focused and dominant performance, especially on the defensive end of the court.”
Houston (-8) over Purdue
“Houston has lost in the Sweet 16 each of the last two years as a 1 seed. The Cougars still have the same elite defense (No. 1 in KenPom defensive efficiency), but unlike the last two years, they can shoot the 3 (39.8 percent, No. 1 in the nation),” said VSiN host Wes Reynolds (@WesReynolds1). “Big Ten player of the year Braden Smith has turned the ball over 11 times in Purdue’s first two NCAA Tournament games and now will face some of the most relentless defensive pressure that he has seen all season from Houston.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
