The Chiefs won the past two Super Bowls as slight underdogs.
On the eve of Super Bowl 59, Kansas City is a consensus 1-point favorite over Philadelphia to make history as the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
But oddsmakers at the Westgate SuperBook believe the Eagles, on paper, are the better team.
“We understand why Kansas City’s favored, because the objective of the line ultimately is supposed to get somewhat 50-50 action,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “But after going through all the props, everyone on our team came to the same conclusion. We all think Philadelphia is clearly the better team.
“We think the wrong team’s favored.”
The Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in the 2023 Super Bowl as 1½-point underdogs, but Salmons said the power ratings of both teams have since moved in opposite directions.
“Kansas City clearly is nowhere near the team that they were in 2023. They were a much better team and power-rated higher,” Salmons said. “Their defensive numbers are nowhere near what they were two years ago, and their offense is shaky at best. They seemingly find a myriad of ways to win games. But it’s not the same offense it’s been.
“Philadelphia, offensively, is pretty much the same team, except they added in (running back Saquon) Barkley, and we’ve seen what he’s done. And defensively, they’re way better than they were two years ago. They totally revamped their defense. They’re much deeper now than they were two years ago, and that team was favored in this game. It’s kind of strange to us.”
The line dropped to pick’em at Circa Sports on Friday for the first time since the Chiefs opened as 1½-point favorites. But Kansas City inched back up to a 1-point favorite after a few hours, and the consensus line has stayed there, with BetMGM and Boyd Gaming at Chiefs -1½ (-105).
The SuperBook team, led by Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray, initially thought there was a good chance the favorite would flip to the Eagles by kickoff.
“I’m not so sure about that now,” Murray said. “The market started to go towards that and saw a lot of pick’ems popping up (Friday). But there was some resistance, and a lot of those books that went to pick have gone back to Chiefs -1.”
Book report
Less than 24 hours before kickoff, the best-case scenario for the Westgate would be the Eagles and under. The consensus total is 48½ after it opened at 49½. The number is 49 at Boyd Gaming and the South Point.
“So far, most of our bigger bets are on Kansas City -1 and Kansas City -110 on the money line,” Murray said. “If you combine the money line and the spread, almost 70 percent of the money is on Kansas City.”
Seventy percent of the tickets on the total are on the over.
“We always need the under because it correlates with the props,” Murray said. “The props are more than half of our business on the game. If this game goes well over the total, I know we’re not going to do too well on props.”
Station Sports needed the Chiefs on Friday but now mostly needs a lower-scoring game.
“The best case is really either team and under,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Under continues to be our biggest need.”
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said Saturday afternoon that his book needs the Chiefs.
“At this point, we need Kansas City a little bit. A lot of the early action was on Philly,” he said. “I told (South Point owner) Michael Gaughan, ‘We’ve been in a lot worse scenarios than this.’ Rooting for Kansas City to win is not exactly the worst spot to be in.”
Reduced juice
The South Point is offering reduced -105 juice at the counter on Super Bowl sides. The Westgate is offering -105 on sides and -109 on the totals in person and on its mobile app. Both books are offering a dime-line on the money line, where the Chiefs are -110 and the Eagles are even money.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
