Super Bowl 59 between the Eagles and Chiefs will be only the eighth Super Bowl rematch in NFL history after Kansas City rallied for a 38-35 win over Philadelphia in Super Bowl 57.
Several stars from that game will be back on Super Bowl Sunday, most notably quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce of the Chiefs and quarterback Jalen Hurts of the Eagles.
But Philadelphia star running back Saquon Barkley, who was still a member of the lowly New York Giants in 2023, will make his Super Bowl debut after a sensational first season with the Eagles in which he rushed for 2,005 yards.
Bookmakers are bracing for an avalanche of bets and money on Barkley after he exploded for 323 yards rushing and five touchdowns, including scoring runs of 60 and 78 yards, his last two times out in playoff wins over the Commanders and Rams.
“He’ll be the most popular prop player,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “He’ll probably outpace Travis Kelce by a pretty big distance is my guess.
“Those guys are such big names. They’re clearly going to be the public darling on the two respective teams. If either one of those guys has a huge game, we’re definitely going to get hit on props.”
TD history
Barkley’s over-under rushing yards prop at the Westgate is 116½ yards, a figure he has surpassed in his past five games, including playoffs, and 10 of his past 14. He is +270 to have 150 rushing yards or more, a mark he has reached in three of his past five games.
He’s a -210 favorite to score a touchdown, which he has done in his past two games and and in 10 of 19 games this season. Barkley is +290 to score two TDs or more — which he had done seven times this season — and 12-1 to score three TDs or more. He had a season-high three TDs in the Eagles’ 55-23 win over Washington in the NFC title game.
“We’re not going to do well if Barkley scores three touchdowns in the game,” Murray said. “All that stuff is going to get hit by the public. They’re all going to be expecting a huge game from Barkley based on what he did in the regular season and based on what he did in the NFC championship game.”
Barkley is the +450 favorite to score the first touchdown of the Super Bowl after scoring the first TD of the NFC title game on a 60-yard sprint on his first carry.
He’s the +275 second choice to win the Super Bowl MVP award at the Westgate, where he’s the runaway ticket and money leader. At BetMGM, Barkley is the Super Bowl MVP money leader and second in tickets behind Hurts (+375).
“He had an MVP-caliber season. The return of the running back,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said. “I think everyone’s going to be drawn to his player props.”
The Eagles scored three rushing touchdowns in Super Bowl 57, all by Hurts, who also rushed for three TDs against the Commanders in the NFC championship game.
“It’s an interesting dynamic. Most of Barkley’s rushing touchdowns come from beyond the 5-yard line,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Will he get the touches inside the 5 is the real key, I think. Or is it the ‘tush push’ with Hurts more than anything else?”
Sharps against Barkley
Barkley’s prop for his longest rush is 23½ yards at the Westgate after it opened at 25½. He eclipsed 23½ in his past two games, six of his past 10 and 10 of 19. But the Westgate took several sharp bets on the under Thursday night when it posted the prop.
“That’s kind of funny when you consider the guy ripped a 60-yard touchdown on the first play of the game last week,” Murray said. “But sharp bettors are thinking, and I agree with them, that Philadelphia is going to play a much better defensive team next week. Washington has a pretty lousy defense, and Kansas City has one of the best defenses in the league.
“I’m not really surprised. A 26-yard run is a pretty long run. It’s not common to rip a 26-yard run against a top defensive team.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
