Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 in the playoffs, with two of the losses coming in overtime in the AFC title game and the other in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs and their two-time NFL MVP quarterback are consensus 1½-point favorites over the Bills in the AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
Professional sports bettor Scott Pritchard, pro handicapper Scott Kellen and legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger aren’t about to bet against Mahomes on his quest to lead Kansas City to an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title.
They made the Chiefs their best bet of NFL conference championship Sunday.
“History has a way of repeating itself, a la Kansas City’s seventh straight AFC championship appearance. Are you kidding me?” said Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com). “Coach Andy Reid and Mahomes are proven duplicatable winners. See the cashier.”
The Chiefs have beaten the Bills in their last three meetings in the playoffs, including last year’s 27-24 triumph at Buffalo.
Musburger, the Review-Journal NFL Challenge runner-up this season (50-39-1 against the spread), is banking on history to repeat itself.
“Mahomes and Reid own the Bills in the playoffs,” he said.
Kellen, who won the RJ Challenge (51-37-2 ATS), is backing Kansas City in part because of its defense.
“Kansas City’s defense is better than Buffalo and that will show up in this game,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “Bills have injuries in their secondary that will likely impact them even if they play. My player ratings show value on KC in this game as long as we lay less than three points.”
Kellen noted that Buffalo was badly outgained by Baltimore in total yards (416-273) in last week’s 27-25 win and prevailed because of a plus-3 turnover margin. He also noted the Chiefs went 6-0 against playoff teams at home this season, while the Bills went 1-3 against playoff teams on the road.
“The Chiefs have a history of finding ways to win,” Kellen said.
Here are four more weekend best bets, which are 61-49-5 ATS the past 18 weeks (home team in CAPS):
EAGLES (-6) over Commanders
Pro bettor Jeff Whitelaw, longtime Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons and three-time RJ Challenge champion Doug Fitz made the Eagles their best bet.
“For the most part in these games, you pick the winner and they usually win and cover,” Salmons said. “It’s a tough spot for Washington to have to play their fourth straight road game.
“Philly’s an experienced team and they’ve been here before. They’ve been the best team among these two.”
The Eagles won their first meeting with their NFC East rivals 26-18 in Week 11. They lost the second meeting 36-33 in Week 16 after losing quarterback Jalen Hurts to a concussion early in the game.
The Commanders are riding a seven-game win streak and Fitz (Systemplays.com) noted that teams entering the conference title game on a win streak of seven games or more are 4-11 ATS.
Washington’s Jayden Daniels will be the sixth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game and Fitz noted the previous five all lost. Hurts is 4-0 at home in the playoffs in his career while going 3-1 ATS.
“Daniels is playing phenomenal, but he’s going up against a better defense,” Whitelaw said. “The Eagles should shut them down. They beat them handily in Philadelphia earlier this season.”
Props
MajorWager handicapper Brian Edwards (@vegasbedwards) recommends three prop best bets:
Hurts over 31½ rushing yards (-120)
“I had Jalen Hurts’ rushing yards prop to go over 40½ yards last week, and he made that a winner on the sixth play of the game with a 44-yard touchdown run. … Hurts had 41 rushing yards on only three attempts at Washington (in Week 16) before leaving with a concussion. When these teams met at Philadelphia on Nov. 14, he had 39 rushing yards. … Hurts has rushed for at least 36 yards in five consecutive games and 10 of his last 12.”
Hurts anytime TD (-125)
“Hurts has scored at least one rushing TD in nine of the last 12 Philadelphia games he’s played in, and one of the games he didn’t was at Washington, when he left the game late in the first quarter. He had a rushing TD versus the Commanders in the first meeting.”
Travis Kelce anytime TD (+130)
“Kelce had … three TD receptions in 16 regular-season games, but he’s had a TD catch in back-to-back games. It’s the playoffs now, and Mahomes knows who he can count on when it matters. Kelce had three TD grabs in four postseason games last year. In the 2022 playoffs, he had TD receptions in all three games. In the 2021 playoffs, Kelce had a TD catch in all three contests.
“He had three TD catches in three games in 2020, including two among his 13 receptions for 118 yards in a 38-24 win over Buffalo (in the AFC championship game). You get the picture.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
