The Lions have won and covered five of their past six meetings with the Packers, including their 24-14 victory Nov. 3 at Lambeau Field as 2½-point favorites.
So why is Detroit, the clear Super Bowl favorite, only a 3-point home favorite over Green Bay at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point sportsbook on “Thursday Night Football?”
“Detroit is so banged up on defense right now. They must have half their starters out,” Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “That’s the reason that line is so low right now because Detroit has a million injuries.”
The Lions have 13 defensive players on injured reserve and are without seven of their top eight defensive linemen from Week 1, led by star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.
Detroit is a consensus 3½-point favorite (even) — the smallest it has been at home all season — after the line opened at 5½.
“Public play on the Lions at -3, -120. We are at the low end of the market with all the Lions defensive injuries,” Westgate vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said before the book lowered the price to -115. “This line has drifted toward 3 all week, and the market continues to inch that way with most of the 3½ flats (-110) dissipating.”
Detroit is -3 (-110) at the South Point.
The betting public is still backing the Lions (11-1, 9-3 ATS), who have won 10 straight games while going 8-2 ATS. At Station Sports, 67 percent of the tickets are on Detroit.
“There’s been good two-way action on the game so far. We’re starting to see a couple larger bets on Detroit,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I’m guessing we’re going to need Green Bay when the game kicks.”
The Packers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) have won seven of their past eight games, with their loss to the Lions. Green Bay is +160 on the money line.
The consensus total is 51½. The Packers have gone under in three of their past four games and six of 12 this season (6-5-1). The Lions have gone under in their past two and are on a 3-1-1 under run. They’re 7-5 to the under this season.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff is 44-19 ATS for the Lions and 14-2 ATS when the line moves by a point or more against him, according to BetMGM analyst John Ewing.
Pro bettor Jeff Whitelaw leans to Green Bay.
“Detroit is decimated with injuries. I think Green Bay should be able to run on them,” he said. “Detroit is awfully strong at home, but I would definitely lean toward Green Bay in this one because of Detroit’s defensive injuries.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
