NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Pritchard, PritchardsPicks.com, @Pritchardwins
Chiefs (6-0) at Raiders (2-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Chiefs -9½, 41½
Analysis: The Raiders hope to remind the Chiefs that they were the last team to beat Kansas City, winning 20-14 last year on Christmas Day at Arrowhead Stadium. But the Chiefs learned from that loss, and have since embarked on a 12-game winning streak, including two road playoff wins and a Super Bowl victory at Allegiant. Thus, the Chiefs have a unique affinity for Allegiant, and considering the current state of Raider Nation, little reason exists to believe another celebration will not erupt in the Kansas City locker room once this game ends. A stingy fifth-ranked scoring defense for the Chiefs (17.2 points per game allowed), and 29th for the Raiders (26.1 ppga), would only buttress the lean in the Chiefs’ favor.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 13
Titans (1-5) at Lions (5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -11½, 45
Analysis: The Titans bring their top-ranked defense into Detroit to face a Lions team led by Jared Goff, who just became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to string three games together with a quarterback rating of more than 140. Titans QB Will Levis needs at least another week to recover from a shoulder injury, so backup Mason Rudolph will be given the reins once again. He will have to improve upon Tennessee’s second-worst turnover ratio in the league to keep this one close.
Pick: Lions 28, Titans 17
Ravens (5-2) at Browns (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -9, 45
Analysis: Browns QB Deshaun Watson experienced a season-ending Achilles tendon injury last week, opening the way for yet another comeback opportunity for former No. 1 NFL draft pick Jameis Winston. Considering Cleveland ranks 24th in total offense, a change at QB may be just what the doctor ordered in helping the Browns become more competitive. But facing the league’s top offense, led by top-ranked QB Lamar Jackson and the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry, should postpone the team’s turnaround efforts for at least one more week.
Pick: Ravens 28, Browns 17
Colts (4-3) at Texans (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -5, 45
Analysis: In this rematch of the season opener, won 29-27 by the Texans thanks to running back Joe Mixon’s 159 yards rushing, Houston QB C.J. Stroud hopes to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Packers. The Colts have not improved on rushing defense since the opener, ranking No. 31 in the league, and Mixon has fully recovered from an ankle injury, which should make this game an uphill battle for Indianapolis. But Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s play continues to improve, which should keep this one close.
Pick: Texans 24, Colts 20
Packers (5-2) at Jaguars (2-5)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Packers -4, 49½
Analysis: Green Bay’s Achilles’ heel this season has been QB Jordan Love’s propensity to turn the ball over, as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions (eight) while playing only five games due to a knee injury. The Jaguars’ defense has come up with only two takeaways this season, but the team is riding a renewal of confidence after last week’s convincing win over New England in London. This game probably comes down to which defense is more effective, and Green Bay’s top-10 scoring defense (20.4 ppga) should give the Jags enough trouble to pull off a road win.
Pick: Packers 27, Jaguars 24
Falcons (4-3) at Buccaneers (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -2½, 45
Analysis: Both of these teams are hoping to bounce back from resounding losses and look to rekindle their division rivalry that found a new plateau in the Falcons’ thrilling 36-30 overtime win a few weeks ago. Tampa lost leading receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries last week, so QB Baker Mayfield has his work cut out to find new connections with a corps of rookie receivers with little experience. Thanks to a sturdy Atlanta defense (ranked 13th in passing yards allowed), Kirk Cousins shouldn’t need to duplicate his career-best 509 yards passing performance (with four touchdown passes) to secure the win in this key NFC South game.
Pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20
Jets (2-5) at Patriots (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jets -7, 41
Analysis: The Jets have been one play away from winning in three of the past four weeks. But that play did not get made, coach Robert Saleh was fired, and the Jets succumbed to a culture devoid of winning to capitulate to the Steelers in an ugly 37-15 loss last week. But hope among Jets fans is cleared for takeoff, as holdout edge rusher Haason Reddick is finally ready to make his 2024 debut, and receiver Davante Adams is back with QB Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, not much hope currently exists in Foxborough concerning this struggling Patriots team, which has continued to soften competitively for six straight games after opening the season with a shocking win in Cincinnati.
Pick: Jets 24, Patriots 17
Cardinals (3-4) at Dolphins (2-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -4½, 46
Analysis: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa returns from a concussion with Miami only managing to squeak out a win against the lowly Patriots since their fortunate Week 1 win against the Jaguars. But the Dolphins’ defense has continued to improve, and is now ranked first against the pass, giving up only 154.5 yards per game. That should play well against the Kyler Murray-led Cardinals, who over the past four weeks have alternated narrow victories with blowout losses. Since last week was a skinny win, it appears high time for an L to reappear on their season record.
Pick: Dolphins 24, Cardinals 20
Eagles (4-2) at Bengals (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Bengals -3, 48
Analysis: The Bengals enter this game having won three of their past four, and probably should have won that fourth against the Ravens with a questionable penalty on fourth down in the closing minutes. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is hitting on all cylinders, and the Eagles’ offensive line issues could lead to a long day for QB Jalen Hurts. The Eagles have struggled against far lesser teams this year (Browns, Saints and Falcons), so this game should be another reminder that deficiencies need to be addressed in Philly.
Pick: Bengals 30, Eagles 20
Saints (2-5) at Chargers (3-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -7, 40½
Analysis: Both teams showed potential early on, but have succumbed to injuries and midseason weariness to lose a combined seven of their past eight games. The Saints have lost five in a row, and with QB Derek Carr doubtful due to an oblique injury, they’re forced to go with rookie Spencer Rattler, who has been dramatically ineffective in his starts this season. The Chargers have shown a propensity to melt down in the second half, and have not crossed the goal line in the fourth quarter in five straight games. In this contest of offensively challenged teams, the better defense should prevail. That is clearly Los Angeles, which leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing only 13.8 ppg.
Pick: Chargers 24, Saints 17
Bills (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Bills -3, 47
Analysis: All five of the Bills’ wins this season have come against teams with losing records. This week, they face a 4-3 Seahawks squad that leads the league in passing yards per game (270.9) and has a defense highlighted by a couple of sack specialists in Derick Hall and Boye Mafe. Seattle is a notoriously tough place to play, and the Bills have not proven their muster against tougher competition this year, losing on the road to the Ravens and Texans.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Bills 23
Bears (4-2) at Commanders (5-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Bears -3, 43
Analysis: These teams have been surprisingly good this year, with a combined 9-3-1 record against the spread. Rookie QBs Jayden Daniels for Washington and Caleb Williams for Chicago have placed their teams in contention for their respective division titles, so this game could be crucial to their postseason ambitions. The Bears rank fifth in total defense, and they have not allowed more than 21 points in their last 12 games. I give Chicago the edge even if Daniels, listed as questionable with a rib injury, plays.
Pick: Bears 24, Commanders 21
Panthers (1-6) at Broncos (4-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -11, 41
Analysis: The shell-shocked Panthers have been blown out in the first half this season, getting outscored 152-64. The once-a-season magic of QB Andy Dalton faded after the first couple of games, and the reins will be returned to second-year QB Bryce Young, 2-16 as a starter. He faces an uphill battle against a stalwart Broncos defense ranked third overall and fifth against the pass. But Denver QB Bo Nix’s paltry 77 rating and 5.6 yards per completion should keep this from being a blowout.
Pick: Broncos 23, Panthers 16
Cowboys (3-3) at 49ers (3-4)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: 49ers -4½, 47½
Analysis: In a battle of teams with sky-high preseason expectations and midseason performance woes, one team will pull out of their morass, and the other will continue its painful descent from high hopes. The Cowboys may pin their troubles on an inadequate turnover ratio (-6), and the 49ers on a slew of key injuries, but their troubles more directly lie on defense, with Dallas declining to a 31st in scoring and red zone defense, and the Niners a mediocre 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third-down defense. The game could very well be decided by a marginally better performance from San Francisco QB Brock Purdy over Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Pick: 49ers 24, Cowboys 23
Giants (2-5) at Steelers (5-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Steelers -6, 36½
Analysis: Russell Wilson has finally been crowned the starting QB for the Steelers after his nearly flawless performance against the Jets last week. Giants QB Daniel Jones, on the other hand, is probably one more bad game away from getting some extended time on the bench. The Steelers, ranked No. 8 in total defense and second in scoring defense (14.4 ppga), might be the last group Jones wants to see in his vulnerable position. The respectable Giants’ defense, which ranks 12th in scoring and total defense, could keep this from becoming a victory lap for Wilson.
Pick: Steelers 20, Giants 17
