NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, PickDawgz.com
Browns (1-2) at Raiders (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Browns -2, 36
Analysis: When coach Antonio Pierce says players were making “business decisions” on the field three weeks into the season, that sounds a lot like a team that isn’t on the same page — and that’s not going to get my money. Local apologists will tell you that everything is fine, but that’s not what my eyes see. Three-time Pro Bowler Maxx Crosby (ankle) and six-time Pro Bowler Davante Adams (hamstring) won’t play for a team ranked 30th in yards allowed (378.7 per game) and 22nd in yards gained (295.7 per game). The Raiders also rank 28th in scoring defense, allowing 27.0 points per game.
Pick: Browns 23, Raiders 20
Saints (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3, 41
Analysis: With the news that the Saints are dealing with key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, we’ve seen the public move this number up 1½ points, and that makes sense considering the Falcons feature a top-10 defense that was tasked with holding the Chiefs and Eagles down in consecutive weeks. The Saints will be thin at center, but expect wideout Cedrick Wilson Jr. and running back Alvin Kamara to play for an offense that features a renewed quarterback Derek Carr and two game-breaking wideouts in Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave.
Pick: Saints 21, Falcons 17
Steelers (3-0) at Colts (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -2, 40
Analysis: We know how good the Steelers’ defense has been through three weeks, especially against the run, as an opponent has yet to hit the 100-yard plateau. Priority No. 1 will be stopping Steelers running back Najee Harris, because you can bet Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will test an Indianapolis run defense that has given up 200 rushing yards twice in three games. On offense, anticipate quick passes from Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson to neutralize Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt while loosening up room for an inside run game.
Pick: Colts 20, Steelers 17
Jaguars (0-3) at Texans (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -6, 44½
Analysis: Winless teams with talent are dangerous to bet against at this point of the season because, with another loss, you’ll have team factions thinking more about their futures and less about the team. The quiet rumors that Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson’s job is in jeopardy will turn into loud talking points with a loss. But after scoring just seven points against the Vikings and with running back Joe Mixon banged up, Houston is being served a winnable matchup.
Pick: Texans 26, Jaguars 23
Vikings (3-0) at Packers (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Packers -3, 44½
Analysis: Defense is where I always start my handicapping, and dating back to the preseason, Minnesota was one of the teams I circled. Through three weeks, the Vikings have allowed an average of 10 points per game against the Giants, 49ers and Texans, with plenty of room for improvement. The focus has been on Packers quarterback Jordan Love, but if I’m Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell, my early test would be to go at Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander deep to see how bad his quad injury is.
Pick: Vikings 26, Packers 23
Bengals (0-3) at Panthers (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -4½, 47
Analysis: There is no doubt that former Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton will be fired up to face his former team after a stunning win in Las Vegas, giving Carolina its first win. The problem with betting on bad teams coming off unlikely victories is they can rarely maintain that momentum for consecutive weeks. One, they’re not very good to begin with, and more importantly, they get easily satisfied with the small victories, knowing the crumbs of success will likely be the pinnacle of what they’ll achieve in 2024.
Pick: Bengals 23, Panthers 20
Rams (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bears -3, 40½
Analysis: The Bears are the perfect opponent for the Rams. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 30.3 points per game. But no matter how fallible a team is perceived to be, the opposition must be able to exploit the weakness. It’s fair to say that the Bears’ 30th-ranked offense has little to offer bettors looking to wager with confidence. In addition, we often forget to handicap coaches, and Sean McVay (11-8-1 run against the spread) gives bettors an advantage over Matt Eberflus, who is 15-21-1 ATS in his career.
Pick: Rams 20, Bears 17
Broncos (1-2) at Jets (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jets -8, 39½
Analysis: Some numbers force you to squint to make sure what you’re seeing is accurate. The Jets as 8-point favorites is one of those instances. Since 2015, the Jets have been favorites in just 25 percent (38 games) of their 150 games (16-20-2 ATS). Only four times have they been a favorite of seven or more (3-1 ATS) and twice eight or more (2-0 ATS). This has nothing to do with what will happen Sunday, though. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers over Bo Nix is my in-depth analysis.
Pick: Jets 20, Broncos 10
Eagles (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Eagles -1, 42
Analysis: With the information age at our fingertips, bettors have been sharper than in past seasons, when you could always bank on the public putting their cash behind the more public team, which would be the Eagles in this case. Current betting patterns show that almost 65 percent of the money is on the Buccaneers in what is a massive revenge spot for Philadelphia after getting smoked by Tampa 32-9 in last year’s wild-card playoffs. This will come down to how effective the Bucs’ offensive line is in keeping quarterback Baker Mayfield on his feet, something it failed to do in last week’s loss to the Broncos.
Pick: Buccaneers 21, Eagles 17
Commanders (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -3½, 49
Analysis: Bettors can rely on elite quarterbacks to play at a world-class level almost every week. The problem comes when rookie quarterbacks play at a level above where their development says they should be. We automatically anoint them to a respect level that should only be given to signal-callers who have shown that they can cover numbers consistently. Our handicapping often fails to account for defensive coordinators’ ability to game-plan for young quarterbacks like Washington’s Jayden Daniels, who just put his strengths on film for the first time in his career.
Pick: Cardinals 30, Commanders 24
Patriots (1-2) at 49ers (1-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -11, 40½
Analysis: After getting embarrassed on national television 10 days ago by the New York Jets (24-3), you would think that the Patriots are salivating to show their fan base that this will not be the norm this season. There has been talk on Boston sports radio this week that the Pats should have an advantage on the ground. But I anticipate New England offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will try to establish quarterback Jacoby Brissett early, knowing they have an advantage between the tackles. For as much success as the 49ers have had, they’re just 10-10 ATS in their past 20 games.
Pick: 49ers 24, Patriots 21
Chiefs (3-0) at Chargers (2-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Chiefs -7, 41½
Analysis: Looking at the list of prominent names who are out or at less than 100 percent for the Chargers would lead most to believe that this will be an easy win and cover for Kansas City. But these are games to stay away from, because there are too many variables to handicap. Linebacker Joey Bosa, offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and cornerback Derwin James are out for Los Angeles, while quarterback Justin Herbert and offensive tackle Joe Alt are less than 100 percent. Look for the Bolts to put up a fight but fall short.
Pick: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
Bills (3-0) at Ravens (1-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Ravens -2½, 46½
Analysis: The best thing that could have happened to the Ravens last week against the Cowboys is that they almost blew a 28-6 lead, being outscored 19-0 in the fourth quarter. Buffalo cruised to a 47-10 win over Jacksonville, a performance that convinced the public that the Bills are the side, with 76 percent of spread dollars wagered on them. Expect Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken to move Lamar Jackson out of the pocket to give his quarterback more time and space against an aggressive defensive line.
Pick: Ravens 23, Bills 17
Titans (0-3) at Dolphins (1-2)
Time: 4:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Dolphins -2½, 37
Analysis: I’m usually a sucker for guys who have very few NFL starts, thinking this is the time when the underdog quarterback steps up to shock the books. But there is a point when that becomes wishful thinking, and we’re at that point with the Dolphins. Starter Tua Tagovailoa is out, and backup Skylar Thompson (three career starts) was forced out of last week’s loss to the Seahawks with a rib injury. Tim Boyle, who is 0-5 as a starter, will back up Tyler Huntley, who was named Miami’s starter Saturday. He has started nine games in four seasons, all for the Ravens.
Pick: Titans 20, Dolphins 14
Seahawks (3-0) at Lions (2-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC
Line/total: Lions -3½, 46½
Analysis: There are revenge spots, and then there are sextuple-revenge spots. That’s what we’re looking at with Detroit, which has lost six straight games to Seattle, including three the past three seasons by an average score of 45-35. The first question that needs to be answered is can Lions quarterback Jared Goff move the ball through the air against the league’s top pass defense? I think he will. Don’t get caught up in the injury to Detroit center Frank Ragnow. This is still one of the league’s best offensive lines, and Goff looked more comfortable last week after a slow start.
Pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 24
