NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL
Raiders (0-1) at Ravens (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Ravens -8½, 41½
Analysis: The Raiders struggled to run the ball last week, gaining just 71 yards while allowing the Chargers 176 yards rushing. That doesn’t bode well now facing Baltimore, which gained 185 yards rushing last week, 122 from reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. But the Raiders did throw for 6.1 yards per pass, and the Ravens allowed the Chiefs to throw for 9.4 yards per pass. Baltimore figures to pull away in this game, but the Raiders might score their fair share of points as well, pushing this over a low total.
Pick: Ravens 31, Raiders 19
Chargers (1-0) at Panthers (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chargers -5, 39
Analysis: How in the world are sportsbooks going to be able to pay everyone come Monday morning with such an easy Chargers cover? In the NFL, especially early in the season, most teams are generally not as good or as bad as they look the previous week. With Carolina, well, maybe they are just that bad. But the Panthers should be better on offense this year with the offseason additions. Carolina couldn’t run the ball last week with just 2.9 yards per rush, while Los Angeles allowed just 3.2 yards per rush. The Chargers could be down some key defensive players, including pass rusher Joey Bosa. Carolina lost its best run defender last week in Derrick Brown. I still show a little value on the Panthers against Los Angeles, which doesn’t figure to run away from teams offensively.
Pick: Chargers 23, Panthers 20
Saints (1-0) at Cowboys (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -6, 46½
Analysis: The Saints looked great against a bad Carolina team in Week 1. Dallas blew out the Browns, who were missing their two best offensive linemen. The Cowboys are much better on the offensive line, defensive line and secondary — especially with the Saints likely playing without their best cornerback in Marshon Lattimore. Dallas is on a 10-1 over streak as a home favorite with a total of 48 or less, having scored 27 or more in each game. The Cowboys do what they do at home, while the Saints show their true colors this week.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Saints 19
Buccaneers (1-0) at Lions (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -7½, 51
Analysis: Tampa Bay looked very good last week, but it was against a Washington defense that I rate as second-worst in the league. Detroit, which moved the ball on the ground and in the air last week, should have a field day against a Buccaneers secondary that lost two starters and two backups last week, including its best player in Antoine Winfield. There are massive advantages for Detroit on both lines and in the secondary.
Pick: Lions 32, Buccaneers 23
Colts (0-1) at Packers (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -2½, 40½
Analysis: Green Bay will likely play this game without quarterback Jordan Love. It’s hard to know what the Packers will get with backup Malik Willis, who wasn’t good in three starts as a rookie two years ago. The Colts will counter with Anthony Richardson, who is in his second season after missing most of last season with an injury. Indianapolis averaged 9.5 yards per pass last week, but three plays accounted for nearly all of its passing yards. It averaged 1.6 yards per pass on the other 18 pass attempts. The Colts also allowed Houston to rush for 213 yards at 5.5 yards per rush, so Green Bay figures to do some damage on the ground similar to its 163 yards rushing at 7.8 yards per rush last week. Anything more than 3, and I have interest in Green Bay. Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 14-3 against the spread as an underdog of three points or more.
Pick: Colts 23, Packers 20
Browns (0-1) at Jaguars (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -3, 41½
Analysis: Cleveland was embarrassed at home in last week’s 33-17 loss to Dallas. The Browns averaged just 2.7 yards per pass. The line, missing both starting tackles, struggled to protect quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was sacked six times. Jacksonville led most of the way at Miami but struggled to finish in a 20-17 loss. The Jags lost their best cornerback in Tyson Campbell. Cleveland may get its tackles back this week but might be missing multiple key defensive players. It’s hard to trust Watson, but the Browns still bring a very good defense if they are healthy, and they’re getting points.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Browns 21
49ers (1-0) at Vikings (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: 49ers -4½, 46½
Analysis: Both teams looked impressive last week. The Vikings won this matchup last year on a Monday night 22-17 as 7-point underdogs. San Francisco is without running back Christian McCaffrey again, while the Vikings are without wideout Jordan Addison. With quarterback Brock Purdy and tackle Trent Williams on the field, the 49ers are 9-1 straight-up as road favorites with an average win by more than 14 points. They’ve had just one win by less than seven points in that span. Williams missed the game in Minnesota last year.
Pick: 49ers 28, Vikings 21
Seahawks (1-0) at Patriots (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -3½, 39
Analysis: Seattle started slow last week but ultimately got it going and completely shut down the Broncos, allowing only 3.0 yards per pass and 3.3 yards per play. New England upset Cincinnati, winning the turnover battle 2-0. The Patriots’ offensive and defensive lines are well below average and will likely struggle in this game. Both secondaries are very good. New England has lost 11 of its last 12 games straight-up as a home underdog, going 2-9-1 ATS. The game is won at the line of scrimmage, and that doesn’t favor the Patriots in this game.
Pick: Seahawks 25, Patriots 17
Jets (0-1) at Titans (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jets -3½, 41
Analysis: The Jets were beaten soundly by a good 49ers team Monday night. New York allowed San Francisco to gain 180 yards on the ground at 4.7 yards per rush. Tennessee played a decent game from the line of scrimmage, but a pick-six and blocked punt return for a touchdown sealed the deal for the Bears, who did not score an offensive touchdown. Chicago won 24-17 after trailing 17-0. Tennessee rushed for 140 yards at 5.4 yards per rush but threw for just 3.0 yards per pass. Titans wideout DeAndre Hopkins is fully healthy. The Jets are on an 11-2 under run as road favorites. Tennessee is on an 8-3-1 ATS surge as a home underdog.
Pick: Jets 23, Titans 20
Giants (0-1) at Commanders (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -1½, 43
Analysis: The Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones did not look good last week. Meanwhile, Washington was blown out at Tampa Bay, where it allowed 9.0 yards per pass. Both of these teams have weak secondaries and will look to take advantage. In the first two weeks of the season, road underdogs of less than seven points who won less than seven games the previous year (Giants) are 85-38-6 ATS. Washington is 3-8-1 in its last 11 games against the Giants.
Pick: Commanders 20, Giants 19
Rams (0-1) at Cardinals (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Cardinals -1, 47½
Analysis: The Rams fought hard last week but were overmatched against the Lions after they started losing players on both sides of the ball. They have put two starting offensive linemen and wideout Puka Nacua on injured reserve, and might be missing several other starters as well. Arizona averaged 5.0 yards per rush last week at Buffalo but allowed 8.9 yards per pass. The Rams are extremely beat-up but the Arizona defense is vulnerable.
Pick: Cardinals 25, Rams 23
Bengals (0-1) at Chiefs (1-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Chiefs -6, 47½
Analysis: Kansas City was impressive in Week 1, averaging 9.4 yards per pass against the Ravens. Cincinnati was upset at home by the lowly Patriots, so it figures to be focused this week. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog of three points or more in games he has started and finished. Cincinnati will likely be without wideout Tee Higgins again this week as he’s listed as doubtful. While the situation favors a focused Bengals team, this is a tough matchup with the Chiefs having extra rest.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Bengals 23
Steelers (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Steelers -2½, 36½
Analysis: Pittsburgh won at Atlanta last week 18-10 without scoring a touchdown. The Steelers averaged just 4.1 yards per play but were plus-two in the turnover battle. Denver looked bad last week at Seattle. It averaged just 3.0 yards per pass and lost the turnover battle by two. The Broncos’ strength is its offensive line, but the Steelers’ defensive line is still much better than the Denver offensive line. Pittsburgh has the advantage in the secondary as well. The Steelers are riding a 25-5 under streak in their last 30 games as road favorites.
Pick: Steelers 20, Broncos 17
Bears (1-0) at Texans (1-0)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Texans -6½, 45½
Analysis: Houston escaped with a 29-27 win at Indianapolis last week and rushed for 213 yards at 5.3 yards per rush. Different story for Chicago, which won its game despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. Chicago averaged just 2.1 yards per pass but also allowed just 3.0 yards per pass to Tennessee. Chicago wide receivers Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen are listed as questionable. I expect rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to play better this week, as long as he has Allen to throw to.
Pick: Texans 29, Bears 24
Falcons (0-1) at Eagles (1-0)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Eagles -6½, 47½
Analysis: Kirk Cousins did not look good last week in his Atlanta debut. Philadelphia fell behind Green Bay in Brazil but rallied for a 34-29 victory. The Eagles’ offense was in great form, rushing for 144 yards and throwing for 7.4 yards per pass. But Philly allowed the Packers to run for 163 yards at 7.8 yards per rush and allowed 6.8 yards per pass. The Eagles are on a 16-3 over streak as a home favorite with Jalen Hurts playing. Though Cousins struggled last week, the assumption is the Falcons’ offense is better than what it showed. This is a somewhat low total for an elite offense and one that should be better than average.
Pick: Eagles 29, Falcons 24
