The Falcons held steady as 4-point favorites over the Raiders in their “Monday Night Football” matchup at Allegiant Stadium for most of the past week because of the uncertain status of Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
But Atlanta shot up to a consensus 5½-point favorite Saturday after Raiders star defensive end Maxx Crosby confirmed on social media he will undergo season-ending surgery on his ankle.
Monday’s game will only be the second Crosby will sit out in his career. He has 7½ sacks this season after finishing sixth in the NFL last year with 14½. The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 27.8 points per game.
Crosby didn’t practice all week and neither did O’Connell, who is listed as questionable with a bone bruise in his knee. O’Connell was carted off the field with his injury in the Raiders’ 28-13 loss at Tampa Bay last week.
Former Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder would start if O’Connell is unable to play. Atlanta picked Ridder in the third round of the 2022 draft but traded him to the Cardinals in March.
The revenge factor won’t impact the line. In fact, Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said O’Connell is worth at least one point more to the line than Ridder.
“He’s a big upgrade from (Ridder),” Salmons said. “We opened 3½ on the lookahead line and (sharp bettors) took it down to 3, until (the Raiders’) game started last week.
“When we assumed O’Connell was out for the year, we put up 3½ or 4 and it got as high as 4½ before coming back to 4.”
Salmons said the line would’ve dropped to 3½ with O’Connell as the starter before the Crosby news, and it would’ve inched up to 4½ with Ridder.
The Raiders are on a league-high nine-game losing streak (3-6 against the spread). They’re tied with the New York Giants for the NFL’s worst record at 2-11.
The Falcons (6-7, 5-8 ATS), one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South, have lost and failed to cover their last four games. Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown no touchdown passes and eight interceptions in that stretch.
“Atlanta needs the game so badly. But their quarterback play … Cousins has been horrendous,” Salmons said. “It’s just impossible to trust Kirk Cousins right now laying points.”
Atlanta is favored by 5 at the South Point sportsbook. The total is 44½. The Falcons are on a 5-2 under run. The Raiders have gone under in two straight, though they have gone over in eight of their 11 other games.
“We’re clearly going to be Raiders fans,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “There’s no question. On Monday night, we’re going to need both the Bears (7-point underdogs at Minnesota) and Raiders.”
The Westgate will also need the home team.
“We haven’t needed the Raiders’ (opponent) in a game in a long time. They bet against the Raiders in every game,” Salmons said. “Whether it’s teasers or money lines, people bet against the Raiders in all kinds of ways.”
The Falcons are -250 on the money line and the Raiders, who currently own the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, are +210.
Best bet
Scott Kellen, who leads the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 42-27-1 ATS record, took the Falcons -4 in the NFL handicapping contest (which uses Westgate SuperContest lines) before the Crosby news moved the number.
“Both teams mired in long losing streaks. Raiders have lost nine in a row with all but three losses by double digits,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “Kirk Cousins hasn’t been good but this is a much easier matchup than what he’s faced the last three weeks. Cousins should have time to throw to his receivers versus a Raiders defense that is bottom 10 in pressure rate.
“My numbers show value on Atlanta.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
