NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Joe D’Amico, @JoeDamicoWins, Sportsmemo.com
(On the “Punch Lines” show at the South Point sportsbook every Thursday)
Falcons (6-7) at Raiders (2-11)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Monday, Fox, ESPN
Line/total: Falcons -4, 44
Analysis: I wish I could offer our Las Vegas readers some glimmer of hope. But unfortunately, even against a Falcons team that has lost and failed to cover four straight games, I cannot. Atlanta can certainly win out and finish 10-7. After playing the Raiders, the Falcons are home against the Giants, then on the road at Washington before finishing the regular season at home against the Panthers. But it all starts with a victory against a Raiders team mired in an NFL-high nine-game losing streak. The Raiders have been outscored during their slide by an average of 29.3-17.5. Atlanta needs to win, and it will.
Pick: Falcons 24, Raiders 16
Commanders (8-5) at Saints (5-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -7½, 44
Analysis: Saints quarterback Derek Carr is doubtful for this game, and his backups are far behind him in talent level. Washington snapped its three-game slide with a decisive 42-19 victory over Tennessee before heading into its bye week. The Commanders are in wild-card position, and this is a game they must win with a difficult schedule coming up. Take the Commanders, but definitely try to shop for -7.
Pick: Commanders 24, Saints 16
Dolphins (6-7) at Texans (8-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -3, 47
Analysis: The Dolphins are playing solid football, winning four of their past five games and covering four of six. Giving them a field goal in this matchup is a mistake. Only one of Miami’s victories this season was against a team with a current winning record, but it can win here against a Texans team that seems to have the AFC South title in hand. The Dolphins need every win they can get, and the way quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been looking, passing for 300 yards or more in three consecutive games, they can get another victory here.
Pick: Dolphins 24, Texans 23
Jets (3-10) at Jaguars (3-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jets -3½, 40½
Analysis: How about a matchup of two teams with a combined 6-20 record? You’re going to see a big difference in this matchup at quarterback, where Aaron Rodgers has the edge over Mac Jones. The Jaguars are riding a 5-1-1 cover streak, but sooner or later, Rodgers must make a difference on the field. It doesn’t hurt to have the NFL’s fourth-ranked pass defense getting to Jones.
Pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 14
Bengals (5-8) at Titans (3-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -5½, 46
Analysis: Finally earning a victory Monday at Dallas is going to boost the Bengals’ confidence and morale. Meanwhile, the Titans have covered only one game since September and have been point-spread poison, with an NFL-worst 2-11 ATS record. Cincinnati is still trying to make the postseason, while Tennessee is making vacation plans for January. Both defenses are going to be exploited badly here. Take the over.
Pick: Bengals 31, Titans 20
Ravens (8-5) at Giants (2-11)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -16½, 43
Analysis: Laying double digits in the NFL always calls for precaution. This is the biggest spread of the season. The Ravens could win this game by as many points as they want to. But will they want to? Fan favorite Tommy DeVito will start at QB for the Giants. New York has lost eight straight by an average of 10.5 points per game, but it snapped an 0-7 spread slide with last week’s backdoor cover against New Orleans. The Ravens and their second-ranked rushing attack will absolutely decimate the Giants’ 29th-ranked run defense. As much as I hate doing so, I’m going to have to lay the wood on Baltimore.
Pick: Ravens 30, Giants 13
Chiefs (12-1) at Browns (3-10)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Chiefs -4½, 42½
Analysis: It’s astounding how the Chiefs find new and improved ways to win week after week. However, they are always overvalued by oddsmakers. Yes, they are 12-1. But they have not had a win by more than three points since Nov. 4, and that was a six-point victory in overtime over Tampa Bay. Only two of Kansas City’s 12 wins have been by more than seven points, and it has not scored more than 30 points in any contest this season. Another KC win. But another squeaker.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Browns 24
Cowboys (5-8) at Panthers (3-10)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Panthers -2½, 43
Analysis: Carolina is riding a five-game cover streak, but it was an underdog in all five of those games. This is the first time the Panthers have been favorites this season. And the oddsmakers are stretching it by making them favorites against a Dallas team that hasn’t been officially eliminated from the playoffs. To say the Cowboys have fallen short of expectations would be an understatement. They need to save a little face.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Panthers 20
Steelers (10-3) at Eagles (11-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Eagles -5½, 43½
Analysis: These Pennsylvania teams are riding a combined 16-1 run. The Eagles are a much better team on paper, but football isn’t played on paper. One thing Mike Tomlin and the Steelers know how to do is show up in big games. With Baltimore two games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North, the Steelers need to keep their foot on the gas to lock up the division. Both teams can run the ball, and both teams are good against the run. While I feel the Eagles will win, I doubt they can play more physical than the Steelers. That factor will keep this game closer than the point spread.
Pick: Eagles 24, Steelers 20
Bills (10-3) at Lions (12-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Lions -2½, 54½
Analysis: Detroit has been playing at such a high level for so long, it is in for a letdown here, especially against a Buffalo team coming off its first loss in two months. At first glance, it looks like you should take the home team. The Lions are on extra rest, while the Bills played a barn burner last week, losing 44-42 at the Los Angeles Rams. But Buffalo is much healthier. Bills QB Josh Allen just might have his best passing performance of the season. There’ll be so much scoring here, they might have to replace the bulbs in the scoreboard after the game.
Pick: Bills 34, Lions 31
Colts (6-7) at Broncos (8-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -4, 44
Analysis: The Broncos have won three straight and covered four in a row. The Colts have gotten a little lucky at times, including their 25-24 win over the Patriots last time out. Denver is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season, while Indy is on a 1-4 spread slide. The combination of the ever-maturing leadership of Bo Nix on offense and a stingy defense points to the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 24, Colts 20
Buccaneers (7-6) at Chargers (8-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -3, 45½
Analysis: This was one of the toughest games on the board. Tampa Bay has won three straight and covered four of five. The Chargers have lost two of their past three games but are riding a 6-1 cover run. Los Angeles’ offense leaves a lot to be desired, but it has the fewest turnovers in the NFL with six. And the Chargers’ defense is tops in the league in scoring, allowing only 15.9 points per game.
Pick: Chargers 24, Buccaneers 20
Patriots (3-10) at Cardinals (6-7)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -6, 46
Analysis: This is a big step down in class for Arizona, which has lost three straight games to Seattle (twice) and Minnesota. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray plays a lot better at home. QB Drake Maye gives New England fans a glimmer of hope for the future, but he has no supporting cast. The Patriots’ defense has been shredded for 28, 34, and 25 points during their three-game slide.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Patriots 20
Packers (9-4) at Seahawks (8-5)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Packers -2½, 46½
Analysis: Sharp bettors are definitely on Seattle, while the general public is all over Green Bay. This is another tough game to handicap, but my power ratings make the Seahawks 2½-point favorites. That’s why this line is quite confusing. Seattle is still one of the toughest places to play. QB Geno Smith and his stellar receiving duo of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf will pick apart the Packers’ 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 24
Bears (4-9) at Vikings (11-2)
Time: 5 p.m. Monday, ABC
Line/total: Vikings -7, 44
Analysis: Chicago started 4-2 but has lost its past seven games. Now the Bears have to hit the road to face the red-hot Vikings, riding a six-game win streak. Chicago is 0-6 on the road, while Minnesota is 6-1 at home. After playing the Bears, the Vikings finish the season with tough games at Seattle, at home against Green Bay and at Detroit. So a win here is big for Minnesota, which is is ninth in the NFL in scoring with 26.1 points per game. The Vikings’ defense also has been a big reason why they have been so successful this season. They’re second in takeaways (2.1 per game) and rushing defense (87.2 yards per game allowed), and sixth in scoring defense (18.5 ppga).
Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 17
