Aside from the obvious factors such as injuries and talent, the most important consideration for handicapping a short tournament like the World Cup is chemistry.

There are always plucky underdogs who find a winning formula and gain momentum during the group stage (think Costa Rica in 2014) and powerhouse countries who implode and crash out of the tournament early (Germany in 2018).

The trick is to identify them and stay on the right side as long as possible.

Starting with Sunday’s opening match between host Qatar and Ecuador, I’ve been handed a $5,000 fantasy bankroll to bet during the World Cup on sides, totals or props.

Until the final is played Dec. 18, expect plenty of plays on Brazil and Denmark, along with several obscure references to Dutch soccer players.

Below are my bets for Tuesday:

Bankroll: $3,395 ($1,505 pending)

Monday: Lost $0

Today: Betting $205

Bet 1: $100 on Poland (+205) over Mexico

Breakdown: This Mexico side is old and crusty, and features a toothless offense that shouldn’t challenge Poland’s suspect back line. Poland generates most of its offense from crosses, and that direct attack is something Mexico has struggled to stop. Striker Robert Lewandowksi is one of the top scorers in Europe the past handful of seasons and will be a handful for Mexico’s 6-foot-5-inch center back Cesar Montes.

Bet 2: $105 on Germany (-½, -105) over Japan, first half (Wednesday)

Breakdown: The Germans usually come out blazing in their World Cup opener, with 2018 being the notable exception. This version is still in transition after losing to England in the round of 16 at the European Championship last year, and Japan is a difficult team to break down. But Germany will push for an early goal so it can settle the nerves.

PREVIOUS BETS

Monday

Bankroll: $4,795 ($105 pending)

Sunday: Lost $100

Today: Betting $1,500

Bet 1: $100 on U.S.-Wales Under 2 goals (Even) PUSH

Breakdown: This match will go a long way in deciding who advances from Group B along with the favorite England. Neither team can afford a loss, and that should make for a tense affair. These teams played two years ago and it finished 0-0, though several top players for both sides missed out on that match.

Bet 2: $1,400 on Argentina (-700) over Saudi Arabia (Tuesday) PENDING

Breakdown: Hopefully, this is a bankroll-builder game. La Albiceleste are one of the pre-tournament favorites with superstar Lionel Messi leading the way. Losing, or even drawing, the opener against a team ranked 51st in the world would be a disastrous way to start.

Sunday

Bankroll: $5,000

Today: Betting $205

Bet 1: $100 on Ecuador-Qatar draw (+205) LOSS

Breakdown: The rumors that eight players from Ecuador were bribed with $7.4 million to throw the opener and allow a second-half goal are probably bogus. Besides, a draw seems like a less suspicious outcome. Qatar can hold its head high for earning a result. Ecuador is fine with getting a point. And the conspiracy theories will just float away like a Wesley Sneijder free kick. Yeah, right.

Bet 2: $105 on Will Ecuador advance from Group A? (Yes, +120) PENDING

Breakdown: This could come down to the final game of the group when Ecuador faces Senegal. Had Sadio Mane not been ruled out of the tournament for Senegal, maybe this bet doesn’t get made. But the late news could unsettle the Lions of Teranga.

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.